Thursday, June 22, 2006

Sacramento Region Home Listings Inventory for June 22, 2006

Apologies for the early post; I’m heading out of town this weekend to escape the summer scorch. That means I’ll miss the weekly inventory leap that happens every Saturday. Oh, well. Next week’s stats will pick it up.

Anyway, for this week up to today, inventory continued to build at about 60 homes per day. The four-county Sacramento Metro area now has 16,668 listings:

I’ve decided to call the exact days I expect Sacramento will surpass the all-time inventory records. We should exceed 17,913 on July 13, and 19,000 by July 31. I wonder what the Bee will say then?

In addition, pending sales for Sacramento County fell off again w-o-w, dropping from 1,257 to 1,245, or 10.6% of all listings. This as county inventory grew by 124 during the same period:

Sacramento Area Price Level Inventory For June 22, 2006

As promised last week, I’ve expanded the price ranges for the price level inventory graphs. One quick thing to note is the inverse relationships between some adjacent price ranges. This is probably due to price reductions bringing inventory down in the higher range and bringing it up in the lower. These price drops must be very pervasive in order to overcome the cross-the-board inventory increases we have been seeing.

Saturday, June 17, 2006

Sacramento Region Home Listings Inventory for June 16, 2006

For the last week, pending inventory increased at the same rate as regular inventory. Pending inventory increased in Sacramento County from last week to 1,257 listings, and remained steady as a percentage of total listings at 10.8%. As of June 16, there were 10,374 homes for sale in Sacramento County, which is about an 8-month inventory:

The Sacramento Bee released the median selling price data for May, so just for grins I compared their numbers with my median asking price data:

Median selling price data are fairly meaningless since you usually aren’t given other important info like price/sqft to qualify the data. It would appear from this table, however, that sellers are dropping their prices during negotiations, or more houses are selling below the asking median than above it. Either way, there is downward price pressure on the market.

Inventory continued to grow unabated this week in the four-county Sacramento Region for the week of the 16th. Inventory rose to 16,430, which puts us within 1,500 of the all-time population adjusted inventory record of 17,913.

Just to mess with the inventory watchers, the Bee also released another inventory benchmark to shoot for:

Then, approximately 2.5 percent of the region's residential units were for sale. Since (1992), builders have added approximately 210,000 new single-family homes, condos and apartments to the four-county region's housing supply, according to the Construction Industry Research Board. The number of homes for sale today would have to swell to almost 19,000 to equal the impact of the 13,507 for sale in 1992.

If 19,000 units are 2.5% of the regions residential units, then there must be over 750,000 units in the four-county region. Thanks to ocrenter, we know that the population in Sacramento in 1992 was 1.55 million, and today it is 2.1 million. That would mean that population has grown 35% in the last 14 years, while the number of units has climbed by 39%.

Of course, we don’t know how many of these are rental apartments, or how family size has changed since 1992. Either way, there are 10% more units per-capita in Sacramento now than in 1992, which can't be a good thing for the market.

If listing inventory keeps growing at the current rate, it should hit the 17,900 level by the second week of July, and the 19,000 level in early August, at the very latest:

Sacramento Area Price Level Inventory For June 16, 2006

Nothing major to report this week, as all the regions stuck to their previous trends. One exception to note is Yolo County, which had a paltry 1% inventory increase this week. The small overall increase corresponded with a reversal in the $400k-$450k growth rate. This range actually lost inventory, and went from 138 on June 19 to 125 this week.

Flippers continued their successful retreat from the market, with flipper inventory as a percentage of total listings dropping in all four counties. El Dorado flippers faired the best, with 229 total resale flips, and only 14 in trouble. Placer County flippers continued their poor showing, with 674 flipper listings, and 95 of those taking a loss. 20% of the market in Placer and Sacramento were flippers, while El Dorado and Yolo had a 13% and 19% flipper rate, respectively.

Next week: Improved price ranges to tease out trends in higher ranges.

Friday, June 09, 2006

Sacramento Pending Inventory Dropping Rapidly

Even as inventory approaches record levels in Sacramento County, fewer homes are being sold. The following chart says it all:

On April 9, there were 8,101 active listings and 1,416 pending. Pending inventory then held steady at around 15% of the market until May 18 or so, when it started dropping rapidly. Currently in Sacramento County, there are 10,142 active listings and only 1,156 pending sales, which represents 10.2% of the market. That is nearly a 33% decline in three weeks!

On June 1, The National Association of Realtors released their Pending Home Sales Index numbers for April. They showed only a 9.8% decline from March in the West, with a 3.7% national drop.

With this rapid decline, Sacramento County has broken from both the National and Western N.A.R. trends. It will be interesting to compare their May numbers to mine. Of course, we will have to wait until July for their numbers. :)

I will continue to watch this trend carefully as we head into the summer months.

Sacramento Area Price Level Inventory For June 9, 2006

Here are the latest inventory and flipper trend graphs for the Sacramento region. El Dorado County continued its gradual flipper reduction trend even as inventory built to 1,740. Placer County flippers, on the other hand, continued their poor showing with 91 flippers taking a loss. That is up from 80 loss takers last week, even though flipper inventory remained unchanged at 667 listings.

Sacramento and Yolo county flippers remained unchanged since last week, with flipper inventory in both counties showing increases in proportion with the rest of the market.

Pricing trends in all four counties of the Sacramento Region have remained consistent over the last 8 weeks, with one exception. We are seeing a breakout in the $400K-$450K range in Yolo County, starting on May 25. There has been a 40% increase in inventory at this price range since that time.

Monday, June 05, 2006

Sacramento Area Listings Movies: April 9 - June 1, 2006

Inventory continues to grow rapidly across Sacramento County. Between May 4 and June 1, for-sale inventory in Sacramento County grew by 1017 listings, or by 12%, to 9,756. The rate of growth also continues to accelerate. In April, Sacramento County averaged 24 new listings per day, while May averaged 35 per day. The four-county Sacramento region surpassed the all-time inventory record of 13,507 on May 4, and it stood at 15,539 on June 1. If this rate of inventory increase continues, the Sacramento region will pass the population-adjusted record of 17,913 during the second week of July.

I’ve included two new movies for you to check out. The first is the same as my May 23 post, with added frames. The second is a close-up of the city of Elk Grove during the same time period. I recommend setting the video in a loop so you can watch the listings pop on and off the market and move through different price ranges.

Once again you’ll need DivX to view these videos. Download the free package at and you’ll be set.

Sacramento County: April 9 - June 1, 2006
Elk Grove Zoom: April 9 - June 1, 2006
DivX Video Software

Friday, June 02, 2006

Sacramento Area Price Level Inventory For June 2, 2006

Here is the latest inventory and flipper trend graphs for the Sacramento region. The data are showing a gradual reduction in flipper inventory in El Dorado County, but increases everywhere else. The flipper market continues to deteriorate in Placer County, with over 10% of all flippers taking a loss.

I’ve been busy over the last 10 days so I haven’t been able to do any more analysis beyond the usual stuff. I should have some time next week to add some new metrics.

Also, if anyone out there has pdf copies of the Sacramento Builders’ Exchange Public Record News going back a couple of years, I’d love to hear from you.