Friday, June 09, 2006

Sacramento Pending Inventory Dropping Rapidly

Even as inventory approaches record levels in Sacramento County, fewer homes are being sold. The following chart says it all:

On April 9, there were 8,101 active listings and 1,416 pending. Pending inventory then held steady at around 15% of the market until May 18 or so, when it started dropping rapidly. Currently in Sacramento County, there are 10,142 active listings and only 1,156 pending sales, which represents 10.2% of the market. That is nearly a 33% decline in three weeks!

On June 1, The National Association of Realtors released their Pending Home Sales Index numbers for April. They showed only a 9.8% decline from March in the West, with a 3.7% national drop.

With this rapid decline, Sacramento County has broken from both the National and Western N.A.R. trends. It will be interesting to compare their May numbers to mine. Of course, we will have to wait until July for their numbers. :)

I will continue to watch this trend carefully as we head into the summer months.


Anonymous said...

So are they closing? Dropping "pending status" says they either are closing or falling out of contract. Which is it?

Max said...

Pending means just that. An agreement has been made to sell the property. It's impossible to know what stage the negotiations are with any contract since that is between the buyer and seller.

I don't have enough data to show if when a home goes off the market and comes back on, whether that is due to "pending" status being removed, or if it was just delisted and relisted later on. I do know that the number of pending homes is dropping rapidly, which would indicate the number of buyers is dropping also.

Anonymous said...

While there is no data to say for sure whether or not the reduction in pending status is attributable to decreased buyer activity or contracts falling out of escrow, my belief is that there is some of both and more of the latter recently.

The word is FINALLY getting out on the housing bubble and people are starting to look at the market with a lot more skepticism and downright fear. The Bee has done an OK job of reporting on these anomolies, considering the amount of RE related advertising dollars that come into the paper. I know that if I were in escrow on a house right now and I saw some of the reports in the paper or on the news, I'd be really tempted to back out, even if it meant losing $1K bucks or so of earnest money.

Nice page, btw!


Max said...

While there is no data...

Nobody except MetroMLS really knows why this is going on, and they're not telling. :)

The Bee has done an OK job of reporting on these anomolies, considering the amount of RE related advertising dollars that come into the paper.

I've noticed that the Bee is very careful about how they report RE news. In terms of criticism, I've heard just as many complaints coming from agents as bubble bloggers.

Nice page, btw!


Anonymous said...

Can you see what pending goes to? Either expired or a sale...maybe withdrawn.

Ask a title rep to run a report that gives you the % of homes in contract and those that actually close...this would be interesting.