Saturday, October 21, 2006

Massacre at Lincoln Crossing

Back in July, I posted some pictures and observations made by John in Rocklin on a JTS development called The Estates at Lincoln Crossing:

Hillwood Loop is a ghost town. So how do you know a house is sold? The developer puts a sign on the lawn stating "Home Occupied, Please Do Not Disturb". Why is that necessary? The homes on Hillwood Loop sold in April and May, 2006. Contrary to what the signs said, I have not seen a single home that appeared to be actually occupied. Note the photos of the builder signs, then look at the front door handles. They all have "door knocker" flyers stuck in the handles, probably selling pools or such. No one has gone in or out of these front doors in days, if not weeks or months. Note the FSBO sign in the window, placed there because the seller is prohibited from putting out a street sign. Nice touch by the builder. Hmmm. Does he care? Not when he is still finding new buyers, who won't see the disguised problem.
Now, just in time for Halloween, Hillwood Loop has become the scene of a flipper massacre. In the last few weeks, JTS started a massive PR campaign to sell out the remaining inventory:



Unfortunately, the sale has put many of the previous buyers instantly underwater. This is a sampling of the 18 current listings on Hillwood Loop that have been drowned. Notice that all the asking prices are still above the previous sale price, save one:


Here is the first of what are sure to be many casualties:



1206 Hillwood Loop
Lincoln, CA 95648
Total Loss: $70,500Percent Loss: 9.2%
Asking Price: $695,000
Bedrooms:5    Baths: 3    Sq. feet:4042

Asking Price Changes:
Down 16.2% from $829,500 On 06-22
Down 14.2% from $810,000 On 08-05

Previous Sales:
Sold on 2006-04-14 for $765,500

MLS# 60068732      Google Maps


Sadly, the fate of the flippers at Lincoln Crossing is not unique. We can expect a similar bloodbath in new developments across Sacramento as the builders bail out. For fun, I ran a Google Earth map of all the Sacramento County flippers, and one for FITs. Notice anything interesting?


13 comments :

tom stone said...

i am amazed at how impractical these homes are,we have smaller families,an aging population and heating and cooling costs are just going to go up.are there more catholics and mormons with $ than i think,or will these turn into rooming houses? based on what i recall of the area these should sell for $250 k tops...if they are genuinely high end construction with good schools,etc.but isn't this near a casino? and a dump???

Max said...

i am amazed at how impractical these homes are

Not only that, they're a 1+ hour drive from downtown during the commute.

isn't this near a casino? and a dump???

Yep, less than a mile from both. There's also a strip of junkyards on the same road as the dump.

Max said...

Here's a Google Earth map of some local "amenities":

Map

Anonymous said...

Funny, those are the same comments East Sacramentans made when people moved to Sierra Oaks, Willhagen, Carmichael. Columbus was told something like that also.

Welcome members of the Flat Earth Society!

The maps are cool...great concentration of FIT's (I'm beginning to break the code) in Antelope, Natomas, Elk Grove, but pretty clear from East Sac thru Fair Oaks! Location, Location, L...you get the picture.

Actually Tom, there is a large population of (they call themselves LDS) up there. But its not that, buyers are getting away from the underfunded police and schools of Sacramento County, the gangs, etc. and into the new areas.

Have you seen the new schools and pools in the new home areas?

JR said...

Anon 5:15,

Wilhagan, Sierra Oaks, and Lincoln? Are you kidding me? You can not use those three in the same sentence. Have you ever been out in Lincoln when the dead animal stench from the county dump is wafting over the area? It will peel paint. And the trains run all night, blowing their whistles as they cross Ferrari Ranch Road. And the Lincoln Airport over flights from all the personal planes are a great touch. And just for fun, there are plans to build an elevated Hwy 65 bypass, so 50,000 cars per day will be carried thru the whole subdivision in a few years.

There is no airport or dump near Wilhagan, and the residents defeated the extension of the Arden Way bridge. Lincoln is no Wilhagan or Sierra Oaks. To much stench, noise and traffic.

sippin Dom, Ha! said...

JR, I looked really hard and I did not see the word Lincoln in my comments, but now that you mention it....

There is a slight premium charge to Sierra Oaks/Wilhagan vs Lincoln. New 2600 sf JTS home in Lincoln, Mid $500's, 35 year old home in Sierra Oaks in need of a $200,000 remodel, $700-800,000 if you can find one available. You can't smell the city dump anymore and the hop fields have been covered over, it only smells like horse poop when they're racing at Cal Expo, Tiegart and Granite Construction don't make much noise anymore and the B-52's don't wake me up with alert mass takeoffs from Mather while avoiding the C-5's landing at McClellen. Oh and Aerojet only tests rockets 1-2x a year now....so its a really quiet neighborhood!

sippin said...

When I saw those maps of Sac County I forgot. Sorry!

In 40 years...we'll be trying to get a tee time at Rio Linda Country Club!

JR said...

Sippin Dom,

This whole section is about JTS's attempt to dump inventory at Lincoln Crossing, so I don't see your non-sequitur issue. The existing JTS buyers are upside by about $200,000 per home, after 6 months, which was the point of the article.

My point is that in addition to their losing $200,000, when the new owners move in, they are getting to experience some sights, sounds and smells that were not readily apparent when they spent 30 minutes signing up to buy those homes about 12 months ago.

Your point is well taken about Wilhagan and Sierra Oaks having their own sets of issues, including their own pricing problems. The market will settle those issues soon enough. I do not think Cal Expo or the Sacramento County dump, being 3 miles away from you to the West, is the same issue Lincoln Crossing experiences with the prevailing SE wind and the proximity of their dump. If it was, your residents would have shut both of them down a long time ago. And all in all, being along the banks of the American River makes for a great microclimate and population insulator. You do get 150,000 cars per day at Watt and F.O. Blvd, but that will hardly compare to an elevated freeway in your back yard.

sip.. said...

Welcome to the country! Yee Haw.

Amazing God-like powers to pull your comments!

This is 1/2 in jest.

The buyers had that 12 months to get to know their neighborhood, hang out, etc. All neighborhoods including the nice ones have their issues, but generally the price takes that into consideration. I imagine JTS also cut some "extras" when they came up with the new prices.

Anybody remember when the Land Park sewage treatment plant used to break down? P.U.

JR said...

Sippin,

You are fun to jest with and you do make good points. You may be interested to know, though, the first NOD (notice of default) was just filed out at JTS' Estates at Lincoln Crossing.

Yesseree, JTS has undercut their clients so deeply, they are losing hope and giving their homes back to the bank. The irony is now that JTS' sales program will also hit the skids. Who is going to buy a new home at market, even 30% under yesterday's market, when you know homes are going back to the banks, and will be sold out of REO pools in a year or so?

Another JTS home was foreclosed in Catte Verdera. Deutsche Bank floor funded the lender and had to take back the "fraudulent" loan, which I am told never had one payment made by the flipper. The bank has reduced the price nearly 20% and it still sits....and sits....and sits....I believe it has been 6 months now.....Deutsche will take the loss now, no matter how you slice it.

So yes, welcome to the country. The Cowboys will ride....yee haw!

Anonymous said...

You could grow a hecka lotta pot in those houses.

Anonymous said...

Evidently as per the sac bee aritcle the local builders are building off land they bought in the 80's and 90's - well before the land $$$ went up. That they cite as the reason why they are cheaper than the big builders. So that brings up 2 points.
1. They aren't cheaper for identical houses, they are more expensive for what can be argued as a nicer and more intricate house. Though I'll take a few of Hortons plans any day over any of JTS'es.
2. They can cut prices waaaaaay down and not even flinch. And KB, Lennar, Horton and centex will be forced to follow and heck get even under them as they are doing now.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Anonymous said...

I'm buying in Twelve Bridges, but really overpaying at this point. I do like the views as well as the peace and quiet, though, and intend to remain in the area for at least 5-7 years.