Monday, October 16, 2006

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for October 14, 2006

Sorry about the late post again this week. One reason for the delay was that I didn't believe the inventory numbers, and I wanted to check with Agent Bubble to make sure they were correct:


Your eyes do not deceive you. After three weeks of downtrend heading into the fall, the four-county regional inventory grew unexpectedly by 250 listings over the previous week. Agent Bubble showed an even bigger w-o-w increase, using a different source. We both think this is unusual, considering the time of year. Of course, we will keep you all up to date as we learn more.

Another surprise has been the rapid degradation of the flipper market. (For those of you wondering, I don't do the spreads for Yolo and El Dorado counties because the market is too small for accurate trends.) On October 14, flippers in trouble made up over 5.5% of total inventory in both Sacramento and Placer county, with a large increase happening within the last four weeks. On April 15, 2006, those numbers were just below 2%.

Put simply, the flippers are getting hammered:





On the price level inventory front, the unexpected increase looks like it occurred at the $500K+ price levels in Placer and El Dorado, and in the $200K-$350K range in Sacramento:





We will continue to follow this unexpected inventory increase, and report back here. One possibility for this is builders listing with the MLS as a last-ditch effort. Is there a way to verify this somehow?

8 comments :

Anonymous said...

Inventory rising in October and flippers losing their shirts - can't get much better than this. Thanks Max.

darth toll said...

Thanks for getting the truth out Max. The Bee can't touch this kind of stuff with a 10 foot pole - it's just too hot (with all of the RE advertising dollars, etc.) This blog rocks.

WArenter said...

Wow, amazing info you're compiling. Great job.

jmf said...

hello from germany,

great/wunderbar!

JR said...

Max, it is always a fascinating take away when I read your blog. Have you been able to analyze and tally the pending sales. Have they bounced back from last week's low point, or are they headed further south?

Anonymous said...

In sac, the new listings are almost all resale in the $200-350K range.

Anonymous said...

In Placer, maybe 4 or 5 of 100+ new listings are new homes above $500K.

Rob Dawg said...

Do a new graph. 4/15 vs 10/16 (green v orange) with all the others removed. In 6 months the switch is eye-popping.