Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for October 21, 2006

After a surprise increase last week, inventory remained unchanged:

So what is going on? The short answer is, I have no idea. Inventory levels have been holding relatively steady around 18,200 +/- 400 for the last month, with a very slight down slope.

What can last year tell us? Well, in 2005, I was only tracking daily inventory for Sacramento County:

Not a whole lot of similarity. Here is the whole picture:

You could argue that we are further along in the downtrend this year than last, but the 2006 falloff is a lot shallower. My mostly unverifiable guess is that the pie-in-the-sky sellers are throwing in the towel, leaving the market to those who have no choice but to sell. This scenario is supported by the continued flipper market deterioration:

(Note: The flippers in trouble number is higher here than on flippersintrouble.blogspot.com due to a more vigorous selection process there. This number could be slightly smaller due to duplicate listings or slightly larger due to condo listings without unit numbers.)

Also, I have pulled the pending vs active graphs due to some unresolved inconsistencies with other data sources. I am going to leave them out until those problems are worked out…

That is all I have for this week, but stay tuned. I’ve been working on a market pricing graph product that should complement this data nicely, and I plan on adding it later in the week.

No comments :