Saturday, October 28, 2006

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for October 28, 2006

FYI: The blog was getting a little clunky with all the graphs, so I’m trying a new combined layout. If this doesn’t work for you guys, let me know…

For those of you who missed it, I have added a new set of graphs to the weekly stats. Allow me to formally introduce the asking price trend graphs:


(Please note that graphs are at different scales from one another in order to highlight trends.)

I think these trends give us an excellent insight into the seller mindset over the past six months. One thing noticeable right away is that all the numbers are trending lower, with average asking price declines ranging from 5-10% since April, and median asking prices dropping 4-6%. However, median asking prices are still lagging far behind median sales:


Keep in mind, I am comparing today’s median asking with September’s selling price!

As for inventory, the numbers keep declining slowly:



I expect to see a large drop on Wednesday when the old listings automatically drop off the MLS. It will be interesting to see if the numbers rebound by next weekend.

On the flipper front, things continue to deteriorate:




The strain on these guys must be incredible. I do not envy them at all.

4 comments :

Anonymous said...

Appreciate your time and effort. It is good to see real information.

Is information on the actual prices being obtained in foreclosure auctions available anywhere?

JR said...

Anon 5:43 (I feel the need to distinguish you from all the other Anons on this blog today!),

I have seen nothing on foreclosure auction data, but if you go to this link

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2006/10/bressi-ranch-flippers-running-scared.html

you will find a very intersting story about an auction in Carlsbad. NOTHING sold. Well, actually, everything received a bid, but nothing cleared the sellers existing debt.

Hmmm, note to sellers: Own the property a few more months, plow in more debt service, let the median price fall some more, and see if this is just a fluke. Answer: Not.

Remember the old 60's adage: "Suppose the gave a war and noboday came." This is almost similar: Suppose they went to auction and nobody bid!

JR said...

Anon,

I have been informally tracking some homes since June 2005 when I considered buying a new home. (By the way, thank you Lander, for saving me.) Anyway, I pop into a lot of open houses and I went to one at 6000 Little Rock in Rocklin. Not a home I wanted, but it was way overpriced at $480,000 for 1800 sf.

It sat unlisted for many, many months. Finally, a big auction sign went up. I called the auctioneer (I think this was in July) and he said the minimum was $380,000. It was still too high to make it into a rental, so I passed. I just looked up the sale price. Guess what? Minimum bid of $380,000 took it.

In this case, the auction go the property sold. But in reality, had the sellers realistically priced the property in 2005, they could have sold it months earlier for about $40,000 more.

It is a goofy market out there and you are going to see some very crazy stuff in the next couple of years. My biggest problem will be maintaining patience and not buying anything before we hit bottom. I have seen premium lot prices are dropping like a rock. $425,000 is now $250,000, which almost starts to work. Still, none of the lots are selling, even with views, so it is best to wait and see how much farther they will drop. If they go to auction, then so much the better. Patience is a virtue.

Anonymous said...

Jr - thanks for the info - i'll look up the site

- Anon 5:43