Thursday, October 12, 2006

Sold/Expired/Withdrawn Activity

I was curious how the sold/expired/withdrawn market has been doing and decided to put together a few charts to get a better idea of the situation. Data used is from the Sacramento, El Dorado, Yolo, and Placer county regions and includes residential listings.

Click on each image for a larger view







13 comments :

Max said...

Wow! That's more than a 2:1 ratio for September. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but 1,817 sales put us between 9 and 10 months of inventory at the end of September.

Where's the Bee headline?

AgentBubble said...

That's correct Max. Everyone keeps jumping on the "inventory is falling" bandwagon without realizing that sales are also falling. The winter months should be very revealing.

half full said...

Yea and we can only be married one woman at a time also, but there's a positive side to these things also....

Closings are running 60-70% of the first 9 months of 2005, I can live with that!

I think the inventory plateau of 10 weeks is an equalibrium point.

A lender friend of mine, after a really dead September (August applications) says this month might be his 2nd best ever (owns the company) we're not talking go out to dinner good month, but buy a house in Tahoe good month.

The people who moved their money from yogart to videos stores to dot.com to real estate will have to find a new game. The question is....what's the next thang? Too late to open a sushi resturant.

Oh yea, how 'bout blog site development and advertising?

Anonymous said...

Half Full-

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JR said...

Wow, so your "friend" is having a "buy a house in Tahoe good month". I bet he will wait until next year to buy though, when they cost 50% of today's price! Then he can have a "buy TWO houses in Tahoe good month". Give me a breeeaaakkk.

Anonymous said...

What half-full failed to mention is that the recent spike in mortgage activity is on re-fi ONLY. This is lying by omission as home purchase mortgage activity has fallen off a cliff.

With the bond market behaving as wildly as it is, the 30 year was pushing new lows again in September which gave some people an opportunity to get rid of the adjustable. Can't say I blame them. The folks that bought last year won't be able to re-fi as the comps aren't there anymore. Pretty soon, the folks that bought 2 or 3 years ago won't have the comps to re-fi. Notice the change in the radio and tv mortgage ads? They only talk about re-fi anymore - never home purchase.

"I think the inventory plateau of 10 weeks is an equalibrium point."

This is the most short-sighted comment I've seen in awhile. The inventory is simply basing before another leg up. The market will remain dead for the rest of the year. Then you'll have another group of suckers throwing their house on the market in hopes of another mythical Spring bounce, which won't happen. Most of this year's unsold inventory overhang will simply be added to that group of new listings.

And to think, the foreclosures haven't even kicked in yet!!! Lordy, this is gonna be ugly.

BTW: Your friend is a complete idiot if he's going to buy a house in Tahoe anytime soon - but all the best to him with that.

English Teacher approved this: said...

Gee I figured I'd get more response from the pluralists!

I guess you can criticize anything on this site except that the market is still falling further...

Refi's have been 50-70% of the finance market over past 6 years. With the falling out of competition, I'm sure he can do OK with his larger share of the home resale market (approx 60% of peak 2005).

Max said...

I guess you can criticize anything on this site except that the market is still falling further...

You can criticize anything at all on this site, but you shouldn’t expect a free pass. It’s hard to believe a mortgage broker is having his “2nd best ever” month, when sales have fallen off a cliff. Refis do not a real estate market make.

Anon 10:41 is probably right. The creatively financed are being saved by still high comps and relatively low long-term interest rates. Any neg-am, IO, option ARM taken out after July 2005 is already under water. If we continue to show a negative y-o-y median price, more people will be out on the street.

Anonymous said...

Well said Max and Anon.

Mortgage activity has very little relation to the real estate market anymore. The advent of these ARM and other loans with built-in resets was a godsend for the mortgage industry because they force people to go through the refi process every few years - they're like a full-employment act for mortgage brokers. And then you have propaganda like this: Treat your mortgage like your stock portfolio: Review it (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-re-lew8oct08,1,991020.story?coll=la-headlines-business), that encourages the constant churning of mortgages and the notion that your house is an ATM machine.

What's the problem with all these mortgages? Most people don't understand them!! The average person probably couldn't describe what amortization is, and is much less able to judge the level of risk in these convoluted new mortgages. Much more regulation of the mortgage industry is needed, particularly since society is doing away with traditional pensions and Social Security is on the ropes - home equity will be the last thing keeping people off the streets in their old age.

BTW, Agentbubble, I think you need to correct the dates in the 2nd chart, unless you're making a prediction. Thx again for the analysis!

AgentBubble said...

Anon 8:35

Good review and good catch of my error.

JR said...

The robust and spirited debate on this blog, supported by the in depth analysis, is very refreshing. Thank you all very much.

Anonymous said...

Agreed that most people don't understand mortgages, then and now. What they understand is "these numbers go in here, I get $X00,000 here."

Follow the example of the former Fannie Mae Chair, "if I fiddle with these valuations here, my bonus goes up by $X0,000,000 today..."

If we all decide to retire on our real estate equity, the govt. will likely take it to fill the social security hole. Might as well spend it now!

On the lender's business, some math:

Purchases:

Market is 65%, but 20% of lenders may have left the market (found other employment).

65% / 80% =81% of previous business.

Refis

Market could be 95%, but 20% of lenders have left the market.

95% / 80% =119% of previous business.

Depends on the mix.

Not everybody will suffer in this market.

Anonymous said...

Can you verify what the homes at West Coast Home Auctions sold for in Elk Grove this past weekend? I believe 12 homes were being sold.