Sunday, November 12, 2006

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for November 11, 2006

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for November 11, 2006

Note: Although I am moving Flippers In Trouble to a subscription service, this blog will always remain free. Until the leading real-estate "professionals" over at SAR decide to publicize these important trends so the people they serve can make informed decisions, this blog will remain free as a public service.

For what it’s worth. :)

Another week, another small inventory decline. Since inventory has dropped continuously over the last four weeks, I added a trend line to guess where the bottom will be:

That would still leave us with over 15,000 homes for sale on January 1, 2007, which is unprecedented. If the inventory run-up of last spring repeats itself, there will be 20,000 listings by May 2007.

All of this inventory is not helping the flipper market. FITs now number 216 and 729 in Placer and Sacramento Counties, representing over 25% of the market. Throw in those asking to break even, and 40% of flippers are throwing in the towel:

Flippers have been decreasing their market share over the summer, down to 18% of all houses for sale in Sacramento County:

As for prices, the run-up of more "affordable" inventory continues in the face of the broad market decreases:

This is reflected in the steady drop in price per sqft:

But who wants to live in Oak Park, anyway?

On a side note, oc_renter has begun tracking foreclosure data on Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking. I bet that will be the trend to watch, starting next year.

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