Sunday, January 07, 2007

Distressed Properties Update

This is my third installment on the situation for distressed properties in the four county area (Sacramento, Yolo, Placer, and El Dorado). I believe these properties are having a significant effect on the market and will continue to do so as their numbers increase. Here's a recap of the last two posts:

# of distressed properties - 1,016
# of MLS listings - 15,330
1 in every 15 homes is distressed

# of distressed properties - 1,196
# of MLS listings - 14,358
1 in every 12 homes is distressed

And here's the most current situation:

# of distressed properties - 1,413
# of MLS listings - 11,847
1 in every 8 homes is distressed

The trend is definitely developing. Even though inventory is dropping pretty steadily (over 20% from 12/1/06 to 1/7/07) we saw an 18% increase in distressed properties. How long can this go on? Anyone care to predict where the tipping point will be for the percentage of distressed properties compared to overall inventory? We're at about 12% now, so mark me down for an estimate of 17% at the highest point.

If anyone would like some numbers for a particular area or city, just let me know.


Anonymous said...

Can you give any numbers for the Solano County area? Specifically Vacaville is what I am looking at. Thank you.

AgentBubble said...

Unfortunately, Solano is not one of our primary areas that we can search in. However, we should have full access to it later this month according to Metrolist's website, and as soon as we do I'll run the data for you. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for letting me know. Solano is pretty scarce on their numbers and trying to find info is hard so I thought I would ask.

Anonymous said...

Do you have information on the older, established Sacramento neighborhoods like McKinley Park, Land Park, etc. We live in South Land Park. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Could you give me some numbers for the North Lake Tahoe Area. In particular...Tahoe Donner, Truckee area? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Can you give Folsom specific, including new construction? Thanks

AgentBubble said...

South Land Park Area (also included Curtis Park)

348 listings
40 distressed


316 listings
16 distressed

Unfortunately, I don't have access to the Lake Taho area listings...Sorry.

Compare these results to Elk Grove:

1,060 listings
179 distressed

Anonymous said...

What is a distressed property?

AgentBubble said...

A short sale, pre-foreclosure, or REO.

Anonymous said...

It would be great if you could pull numbers for Davis, CA. I have lived here for five years and I think over 500K for a run down home in E.Davis is high.
Great website. I've been reading it for, I think, a year or so.
In regards to Davis, as a premium area, do you agree, that what goes up first, comes down last? And maybe not as much?

Anonymous said...

can you check out wilton?? it is in sacramento county.

hope's mom said...

Nice job here.

This is the untold news here. And RealtyTrac Q3 2006 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows that 318,355 properties entered some stage of foreclosure nationwide during the third quarter of 2006. This is a 43% yearly increase in foreclosure fillings from Q3 2005. But there's more: California reported 37,317 properties in some stage of foreclosure for Q3 2006. And the month of November 2006 saw 16,000 new foreclosure fillings added. I don't know what December foreclosure numbers are, but I suspect it will be comparable to November's. What this means is more and more people who financed with ARMs are walking away. Matter of fact, has anyone else noticed lots of empty homes in their neighborhoods lately? I have. I can count more than 10 empty homes (many of them already bank owned) in my neighborhood. A flood of bank owned properties will only serve to drive these prices down even further.

Anonymous said...

A flood of bank owned properties will only serve to drive these prices down even further.

hehehe, wait until the banks holding these foreclosed properties go belly-up.

Anonymous said...

G'day Mates!

Ozzie Tim here.

Due to my analysis of the three data points presented in the article, I can accurately forecast that on April 9, 2007 1 of every 1 listing will be distressed! Thats right, 100% of all listed property will be distressed.

How did you do this Ozzie Tim?

Simple. A quick regression analysis. I used the same analysis that all of the real estate "professionals" used when they projected the market to the upside.


Now, seriously, that won't occur. What I do beleive will occur is that the number of sellers who need out will start cascading. Whether it's speculators trying desperately to cut losses or lenders doing what they do when folks don't pay the mortgage, its all the same.

It wouldn't surprise me to see as many as 50% of the listings be distressed.

Hooroo. Ozzie Tim

Anonymous said...

Could you post some research on Rancho Cordova and Mather?

AgentBubble said...

Wilton was pretty easy to run:

61 listings
1 distressed

Davis: (I'm not real familiar with this area. All of the listings were in 95616 and 95618). Also, as far as premium areas go, I tend to think they are affected less than the standard areas like Elk Grove, Natomas, etc. I can't recall many clients saying they absolutely had to live in Elk Grove, but I can recall clients saying they had to live in Fair Oaks.

108 listings
2 distressed

Racho Cordova/Mather:

321 listings
50 distressed

Anonymous said...

Hi, your post is very interesting, could you please describe the methodology (algorithm, formula) you use to classify the property "distressed".
Where/how do you find pre-foreclosures and REOs?
How do you define the short-sale (is it asking price lower than last sale, or asking price lower than mortgage balance, do you include/consider any closing costs and the 6% sales commission, etc.)? Thanks.

AgentBubble said...

anon--I'm a realtor and I'm using the MLS system to do my searches. "Distressed" is just a term I'm using to classify a property as having a clear need of selling quickly. Short sales, pre-foreclosures, and REO properties all fall under that category. Our MLS system has boxes that can be checked when the listing is entered to classify it in one of the three categories above. Hope that helps.

Anonymous said...

Can you give numbers for both Midtown Sac and East Sacramento?

Anonymous said...

I would LOVE to see NYC info here. The New York market is very similar to the California market and its tough to get this type of info!!

Anonymous said...

Do you have any stats on Rocklin, particularly in zip 95765? Thanks.