Monday, March 12, 2007

Distressed Properties Update

This shouldn't come as a surprise, but the numbers keep rising! 15.92% of the 4 county market is now either a short sale, bank owned, or pre-foreclosure. And keep in mind, this number is probably a few points lower than it should be because agents aren't filling in the MLS fields correctly to account for the distressed listing. A few months ago, I guessed that we'd top out at 16% of the market for distressed properties, but now I'm beginning to wonder if I was too optimistic...Anyone think it will get to 20%???


... said...

AB - is this Sac Co only or all 4 areas (Eldo, Yolo, Placer incl)?


AgentBubble said...

All 4 areas. Would you like the price ranges for them? I can probably round those up pretty quickly.

Anonymous said...

Geez, this is turning into a complete bloodbath. I can only imagine what the lack of liquidity due to the subprime implosion is going to do to this market. I read a report somewhere ( ?) showing that Modesto, Merced, and Stockton were among the highest % of subprime borrowers in the nation! Probably Sacramento isn't too far from the top of that list. If 30% of a given market is subprime borrowers and subprime has essentially vaporized, there goes 30% of the buyers. And it's even worse than that because all move-up buyers require a lower-end buyer to enable them to trade up.

As Fleck mention in his last article, the housing market will seize-up totally in the next 3-6 months, and then the real shakeout begins. Ugly.

Great work on the blog, btw!

2cents said...

Lander's blog has a ranking of % subprime by metro area:

This article on sfgate, "Mortgage market trouble generates stock sell-off"., says CA isn't as bad off as the south and midwest right now. Seems like the central valley has further to fall though, so maybe that will change.

Subprime loans are concentrated in areas with lower income levels, said Keitaro Matsuda, a senior
economist at Union Bank of California.

"The regional differences are really stark," Matsuda said. "It's very clearly a problem in the South, mainly in the areas affected by the hurricane, and parts of the Midwest, where they are suffering from the weakness of the automobile industry."

In fact, the highest overall delinquency rates were 10.64 percent in Mississippi, 9.1 percent in Louisiana and 7.87 in Michigan, the report found.