Sunday, March 18, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for March 17, 2007

The big news this week is the dramatic drop in asking prices in Sacramento County. The median asking price of $350,000, which had held for 12 weeks, is finally starting to break down. The median has fallen for two consecutive weeks, and is now at $345,000. That is a 1.5% drop in two weeks. There was also a simultaneous 1.7% drop in $/sqft:


Both Yolo and Placer are seeing similar trends emerge, but they are too early to call. Could this be the start of a "Spring Thaw" in prices? Stay tuned.

Another developing trend is the rapid increase in flipper inventory. Looks like there were some flippers waiting for the spring selling season after all:




Otherwise, nothing too dramatic to report. Four-county inventory increased a modest 1% w-o-w, to 13,712:



Lower-priced houses are coming on the market faster than higher-priced ones in all the counties, except El Dorado:


All in all, some interesting trends are developing. This will make for an interesting spring…

10 comments :

Perfect Storm said...

Max, these weekly updates are great. The graphs are very straight forward and easy to read.

Great job.

Rob Dawg said...

Love those $/sf graphs. John Lockwood has permanently banned me for having pointed this out to him.

Anonymous said...

Do you think it is dishonest to start your graphs of "flippers in trouble" at 60% rather than showing the y-axis all the way from 0-100%? I think it misstates the data as for Sac County, it looks like Flippers in touble represent 25% of the market rather than the 10% that they actually represent.

Also, why would you track "asking price" vs. "selling price"? This seems to be an odd metric. Also, do you think the high number of bank owned homes has anything to do with the decreasing price/ft^2 as I would assume these homes would not be as well maintained as one owned by an individual, not to mention the fact the owner obviously did not have any money to do upgrades, etc.

Patient Renter said...

Inventory is shaping up nicely. Regarding pricing in El Dorado County, what is going on there!?

Sippn said...

Max - or it could be that a lower median asking price means more lower priced homes are being listed, not that home prices were being lowered.

Anony - never take a media graphic at first look - they are made to get your attention... example the price per foot vs price graph - the percentages are almost exactly the same, yet per foot change looks more dramatic.

Darth Toll said...

"Inventory is shaping up nicely. Regarding pricing in El Dorado County, what is going on there!?"

Nothing. Statistical fluke based on low sample size. The prevailing trend is and will be down. I've lived in many places in El Dorado County for many years (live there right now) and I can honestly tell you that inventory is sitting and the listings are increasing, the prices are dropping and there is a real sense of fear forming from the sellers I've talked to. This is not a good RE market at all and it appears to be getting much worse. Especially up the hill in Shingle Springs, Placerville, Camino, etc. there are a lot of very old for sale signs and a lot of reduced signs. Serrano also sux and there are literally rows of houses for sale on the same street.

Bubble Sitter said...

Anon 10:03 wants to know why you might track asking prices. Well, in this market, that is the most they will take for their house. They will probably take less....much less. The real point is this, asking prices are the leading indicator to selling prices, and you will soon see the result of lower asking prices.

Max said...

Do you think it is dishonest to start your graphs of "flippers in trouble" at 60% rather than showing the y-axis all the way from 0-100%?

Not really. The point is to highlight changes in flipper market share. I think you need to give people more credit; if you were able to figure out what the graph represents, why can't everybody else?

Also, why would you track "asking price" vs. "selling price"?

Because that is the data I have. Selling price data are generated from a completely different data source. If you search this blog, you might find some.

Max said...

Max - or it could be that a lower median asking price means more lower priced homes are being listed, not that home prices were being lowered.

I make no distinction with this presentation, but it would be interesting to find out. Maybe if I have some time later this week...

Gwynster said...

Max,

Any time you can get $/sqft graphs is a day with sunshine for me.

Thanks so much for all the work you do.