Monday, April 09, 2007

Distressed Properties Update

Our latest in the Distressed Properties series shows some very interesting results. We see that distressed properties went up from 2,136 in March to 2,598 in April, representing a 21.6% increase in just one month! Inventory rose from 13,416 homes to 14,932 homes, a 11.3% increase. Worth pointing out is that in the last 30 days, we saw 1,557 homes sell. That calculates into 9.6 months of inventory right now. Back in January I predicted a 17% peak for distressed properties. Looks like I underestimated the market!


Anonymous said...


I went to today and found an upsurge of foreclosures.

Why today?

Anonymous said...

Great work! What's your source for the foreclosure data?

Max said...

Great work! What's your source for the foreclosure data?

These aren't foreclosures, they're "distressed". For more information, look here:

Update on Distressed Properties

AgentBubble said...

I'm classifying a "distressed" property as a short sale, bank-owned, or pre-foreclosure. My source is data straight out of MLS.

Max said...

Wow, AB. I never thought distressed inventory would out-pace overall inventory.

This, despite all the anecdotal accounts of 100% financing still going strong here in Sac. I guess a 650 FICA is still enough around here. When will the lenders learn?

Darth Toll said...

Max, that is the $64K question. And adjunct questions revolve around who, exactly, are the bag holders for all of this subprime and Alt-A junk. Without getting into yet another discussion of FCB's, derivatives, pension funds, and hedgies, I'll go out on a limb and say that the insane lending won't really come to an end until there are some significant and visible losses for some of the above. Russ Winter mentioned a while back that there must be some huge problems lurking beneath the surface of the subprime meltdown, and I agree.

Once these problems come out into the open and a few hedgies crash and burn, the pensions and FCB's will start getting nervous and the mortgage insurance which Tanta talks about, will become so expensive as to effectively eliminate the suicidal lending. One can hope, anyway.

The good(?) news is, nothing is going to stop the cratering of the housing bubble, so the pressure continually mounts until the next wave of lenders cracks.