Sunday, April 08, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for April 7, 2007

The second quarter began with a bang here in Sacramento. Real estate listings jumped by 381, or 2.8% from last week:

Asking prices failed to recover after last week's sudden drop, mainly due to the expiration of hundreds of expensive listings that weren't renewed yet this week. El Dorado inventory in particular failed to rebound completely after last week:

Also, changes in Sacramento County asking price data are being driven almost completely by the huge increases in $200K-$300K inventory. Houses in that price range now make up over 26% of all listings, and are well above last year's peak.

Week-over-week change data has shown remarkable stability over the last four weeks. Price decreases and new listings each have comprised about 9% of the market since the beginning of March:

As for the flippers, things seemed to be holding steady in El Dorado and Placer, while Sacramento continued to deteriorate. Yolo County had a surprise jump in FITs this week as well, which brought it back to its deteriorating trend as well:

At the rate things are breaking down in Sacramento, all flippers there will be FITs by October, unless something gives.


Perfect Storm said...

Under water bank owned properties are FIT's by default, literally.

Anonymous said...

Need some advice/interpretation on these data. As a renter looking to buy a house at the $500-$600K level in about 6 mos to a year, these data actually worry me a bit. Inventory and price pressures seem to be concentrated at the $200K - $350K level. In the higher price categories invetories actually seem to be slightly LOWER than last year at this time based on what I'm seening in these graphs. I'd like to see the pressures at the low end of the market bleeding into the middle and high end but I can't see that.

... said...

Lets call up the builders and ask them to overbuild again in your price range ...was that $500-600K? ... coming right up.

Wouldn't that be nice?

What they build impacts the resale inventory.

A builder salesman friend told me 2 weeks ago that they have blown through their $500-600K inventory completely and down to 2 months inventory average (4 months inventory is national average in normal year per US census data)

Speaking of what's normal - when this market declares a bottom, any home that was purchased and remarketed within the first year will be a "flipper in trouble" FIT, why? because the transaction costs of purchasing/selling a home (5-6% commission, $2K moving, 1% loan costs, taxes, drapes, etc.) are usually more that the first year of appreciation. Buying something for full retail (FITS in new subdivisions) and expecting a gain on a sale is a once every 15-20 year fluke in a few markets.

Sorry, I'm even boring myself.

... said...

Oh, Max - my "technical" analysis like the stock market...

The rate of growth in inventory looks flatter than last year... what think? Yes I know, its a bigger number so far.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Sippin. I'd really appreciate if you could arrange to flood the $500-$600K market for me. Nothing too dramatic; I don't want you to to be too cruel. But if you could focus your attention on Elk Grove, where I have an eye on a property, I'd really appreciate it.

Josh said...

The rate of growth in inventory looks flatter than last year... what think?

The rate of increase is definitely slower this year than last, so far. I didn't collect the w-o-w data until last April, so I can't really compare the y-o-y rate of change data for a few more weeks.

Josh said...

As a renter looking to buy a house at the $500-$600K level in about 6 mos to a year, these data actually worry me a bit.

I wouldn't sweat it. In my opinion, you shouldn't be shopping strictly by price range anyway. A $600K house this year is a different house than one last year.