Sunday, April 29, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for April 28, 2007

Well, I'm embarrassed. Turns out that the "big drop" in high-priced inventory we saw over the last month was due to a recently made error in my code, and did not occur in reality. This same error has led me to understate overall inventory and prices as well, with the most effected being El Dorado County. I will spare you the technical details on why this happened, but rest assured, the error has been corrected.

So, let's begin with price level inventory:

As you can see, El Dorado County inventory has actually been increasing more rapidly than the other counties over the last month.

As for overall inventory, the four-county area now stands at 15,812, which is 18.7% higher than last year at this time:

The asking price trends are easier to correct for, since the large deviations are easier to mentally correct for:

Interestingly, the flipper data seem to be the least effected by the missing data:

I'm leaving out the weekly change data this week since it's too distorted to be of any value.

Thanks for bearing with me. The more complicated my code becomes, the easier it is for errors to creep in. If you have any questions about the details, or what the previous four weeks of data should look like, send me a email or write a comment.


ratlab said...

You're not allowed to make mistakes. The HAL9000 never made mistakes! Ha!

Joking aside, thanks for putting these number up each week.

... said...

You're forgiven.

For laughs, you should look at the neighborhood data Zillow uses in the 2003-2005 time frame, some show 50-100% annual appreciation.

The bigger the string of code, the more possibilities of crap. Did we think there was some secret cadre of brain surgeons out there programming our computers? No they busy doing brain surgery! Damn.

... said...

My grammer really isn't that bad. I just type poorly!

Josh said...

Thanks, guys. I feel like such a dummy; the mistake was so obvious, once I found it. :)

Also in retrospect, those big drop offs didn't make any sense either. "Measure twice; cut once", why am I always relearning that one?

patient renter said...

You're way ahead of most/all the other RE reporters, in that you are at least willing and able to admit a mistake.


Anonymous said...


If you don't stumble every now and then, you're not pushing the limits. People who never fumble just never carry the ball.

We appreciate your work and keep bringing it. What would else would we do? Turn to the MSM or the NAR? Puuulllleeeeaase.

Gwynster said...

Thanks Max. I wasn't stressing the EDH numbers because frankly it's pretty much last place I'd want to live right up there with anywhere south of Santa Barbara >; )

I know some people really like it but it reminds me of the worst parts of over developed OC.

Anonymous said...

The graph with many lines is confusing.

What important are two issues:

1. inventory level

see this way:

2. You are the only one providing the clear metric of price per Sq ft. This is the only place one can truely find out how much home prices have gone down. please present it clearly.