Thursday, June 28, 2007

Notable Listings

This one caught me by surprise. I believe it was gwynster who posted about this condo over on the Sac Landing blog. I don't know much about Davis, but unless there's some unseen mystique here, logic has certainly been defied.

Here's a picture of this 1283 sq ft beauty:

The condo was remodeled and sold for $660K back on 7/11/06. It was listed for $649K and sold for $11K more in just 4 days. Fast forward a year and it's now pending at $795K!!!

$619/SF. I really don't know what else to say.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for June 23, 2007

Man, I'm getting later and later with these things. Just the graphs this week, and I'll field questions in the comments.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for June 16, 2007

Four county inventory moved sharply higher, increasing by 2.9% (483 listings) over last week:

In addition, asking price levels continue to fall. Average price per sqft has fallen 12% year-over-year in Sacramento County, from $259 to $228:

The reasons for this trend can be understood by looking at price level inventory:

In all the counties, the inventory growth rate for higher-priced houses is much lower than the growth rate on the low end. Simply put, this confirms what a lot of folks have been commenting on. The Sacramento housing market appears to be bifurcating into two markets, one for high-end houses in desirable areas, and another for low-end houses. We will need to look at sales to understand this fully. Stay tuned!

In flipper world, things are not looking up:

Watching the deterioration of the flipper position is amazing to watch. The only thing that seems to be holding is the 80:20 / 85:15 ratio of non-flips to flips. I expect these numbers to continue to grow as the REO departments of the various bag-holder banks come back to life.

Here are the weekly change graphs:

Does anybody find these useful? If nobody does, I will probably discontinue them on a weekly basis, and only post them when something changes. If anyone would like me to keep posting them weekly, leave a comment or send me an email.

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Sitemeter Gone

Just an FYI: Apparently Sitemeter (the service I've been using to count site visits) has begun using third-party cookies to track users. This change was made without notifying Sitemeter customers (like me). Needless to say I have dumped Sitemeter from all of my sites.

Monday, June 11, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for June 9, 2007

I was going to do a nice write-up when I got home tonight, but since OC Renter scooped me, I'll just drop the graphs in. The data is already three days old anyway. :)

I think I need another week off!

Edit: The price increase for Sacramento is due to a single $30,000,000 listing for a 4,000 sqft house on 100 acres of land. I will filter this out for next week.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Distressed Properties Update

Up, up, and away! The numbers below shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. We've now hit the 20% mark though, meaning 1 in every 5 homes in MLS is either a short sale, pre-foreclosure, or REO. A while back I guessed we'd top out at 17%. Here's something you won't hear every day from a Realtor--I was wrong! But in this case, I don't necessarily mind being wrong. A 5.4% monthly increase in sales compared to a 15.6% increase in distressed properties. I just wonder if we can get to 25% now!

Notable Listings

Every so often, I come across a listing that really stands out. This is definitely one of the extremes...

First, let's take a look at the history of the property. Click the image below to see a larger view.

In a nutshell, the property was originally listed for $495,000, went in/out of escrow a few times, then finally was reduced to $465,000. By this time, it had been on the market for nearly 6 0months. Here's where it starts to get interesting. The property sold on 1/19/07 for $493,000 ($28,000 ABOVE asking price). The loan for the $493,000 sale was for $468,350. Where did the remaining $24,650 go???

Now get this, on 5/15/07, the property is once again for sale. This time, it's listed at $393,500, almost $100,000 less than what it was purchased for 4 months earlier.

It's not listed in MLS as a short sale either.

Is it me, or does this transaction smell very funny?

Sunday, June 03, 2007


Sorry guys, no stats this week. The fiancé and I are on a much-needed break from the hectic Sacramento scene. In the meantime, please indulge yourself with a little summer reading. I'm finding that nothing complements an island holiday like a discussion on the impact of uncertainty and the fallacies of predictive economics, which is why I'm reading "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. To get the flavor of the type of discussion you'll encounter in this book, check out this timely post and follow-on discussion on Calculated Risk where Tanta demonstrates how the narrative fallacy can trap even the most astute economists.

I told you, I'm on vacation! :)

Friday, June 01, 2007

Preliminary May Sales Stats

May has come and gone, so I ran a quick search to see how the sales stats stacked up. It's still early since agents are supposed to enter the sales information within 2 days of closing, so there may be some stragglers that aren't accounted for. My search showed 1,499 sales for the 4 county area, a drop of nearly 34% from May of last year. For the last 2 years, June has always seen the highest number of sales. Will we repeat this year? The image below contains sales history for the last 2 years.