Friday, July 06, 2007

Distressed Properties Update

Our latest update in the Distressed Properties series finds more of the same. In short, a 15% increase in distressed properties and a 3.9% increase in inventory. 22.4% of total inventory is either a short sale or REO. I have started separating the count by type (short sale or REO). I wish I would have started earlier though! However, something tells me I'll have plenty of opportunities in the future to add more data.

12 comments :

Diggin Deeper said...

Thanks! This answers a bunch of questions I had about how these properties were reported on the MLS. Not quite as bad as I had originally figured but we're this downturn is still an infant, imho.

AgentBubble said...

Diggin Deeper said... Not quite as bad as I had originally figured

Don't start getting sentimental on us now ;-)

Anonymous said...

I would have thought that the short sale listing would be of interest to agents looking for good buys for buyers. However, I just got out of a meeting where a top producer informed me that he excludes showing any listing shown as a short sale because of the inability to get contracts approved or responded to in a timely manner. He will not wait while there are other sellers who will respond more timely

AgentBubble said...

That's pretty common. Usually the reason is that there's no guarantee of a full commission being paid.

Real said...

AB - what is the inventory pricture Year over Year? Did we cross over July 2006 yet? I am trying to eyeball one of the old charts and it looks like we are within 1% of 2006 so my assumption is that inventory will peak under 2006's high watermark of ~19K. Please post the inventory number from July 2006 - thanks!

AgentBubble said...

real,

I personally have only been tracking inventory numbers since November. I've seen estimates on other blogs, but can't attest to their validity.

Gwynster said...

BMIT has been tracting since 05. He shows us as being over the 2006 record. Now we're shooting for the population adjusted record and we're pretty close to it,

Perfect Storm said...

1,751 homes for sell are REO, so subtract the 8,200 plus number on realtytrac.com and that leaves 6,449 homes that are bank owned, but not listed or around 20%. Bank owned is not correct, I say Wallstreet owned. So we can add 6,449 home to the inventory list, which put us at over 24,000 homes for sale or soon to be for sale.

mopar777 said...

I can't stand the notion of realtors being called "producers" when in fact they produce NOTHING. It's no less annoying than a mafia guy in the Sopranos talking about how he is "earning."
"Agent" or "Top Agent" would be more appropriate.

Bubble Sitter said...

It is fascinating to watch this market march toward the bottom, which must be a couple of years away. I just saw a home listed in Roseville on Toscano Drive. The price has been reduced from $750,000 to $715,000, to $699,000 now.

Here is what is strange: A bank owns the same model about 10-12 miles further out and has listed the price at $489,900. So let me ask you this: Will you drive 12 miles per day for $210,000? If you live there 7 years (the average), and make 7 trips to town every week, that is about 8800 miles/year. So you save $30,000/year or $3.40/mile (excluding interest, taxes, insurance, etc). Fascinating.

Oh, one more thing of significant interest. The poor FB on Toscano paid $499,000 for their house in 2001! You can buy the same model for less today, about 12 miles away.

This market is getting Goofy. Disneyland Goofy. In fact, it is getting to be very Mickey Mouse!

REO Speedwagon said...

Bubble,

Your points are well founded. This just in on the REO factor:

The 3070 SF house on Toscano? Countrywide owns a bigger house around the corner on Orvietto. They just lowered the asking price from $724,000 to $684,000 for 3928 SF ($174/SF). That price makes Toscano house worth $534,100 on a good day! This market drop is accelerating rapidly.

Perfect Storm said...

Comment by Jingle from Ben Jones Blog:

I think the MBS factor is going to cause the market to take much longer to unwind, and it will drop further in the end. I see servicing companies with no idea they even own a house, and it has been vacant and foreclosed for 6 months. GMAC is one of the worst. Countrywide seems to be willing to blow inventory out the door. If you look at the Countrywide REO tracking blog http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/2007/06/9495-reo-offered-for-sale-on.html and go deeper into the California REO at
http://www.streamfx.com/CW/6-29-2007/REO-California.html
you will see CFC keeps marking down their houses every couple of weeks by 5-10%. They do know how to keep interest in the homes and find the bottom sooner, rather than later.