Monday, July 16, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for July 14, 2007

Another commentary-free week since I've been exceedingly busy. Except to say, looks like inventory rebounded after the typical end-of-the-month drop, and FIT percentage grew for the first time in a while in Sac county. Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for those guys... And Sippn, you're welcome. :)








12 comments :

Bubble Sitter said...

The market may be poised for a melt down..........

I heard this on KFBK this evening: The lenders foreclosed on 3400 homes in Sacramento during June.

Add to that:

The builders sold approximately 600 homes in June? (and built many more)

The realtors sold 1500 homes (and listed many more).

Thus 2066 homes sold while the lenders foreclosed on 3400 homes.

It seems we will soon see an extra 1300 homes per month added to inventory. If this trend holds for 6 more months (and there is nothing to indicate the trend is reversing), we will easily see 25,000 homes for sale in Sacramento in 2008.

Using a realtor's favorite phrase: "That is just stunning".....

Perfect Storm said...

foreclosed on 3400 homes in Sacramento during June.

Biblical, just biblical and the majority of resets are still a few months away.

Perfect Storm said...

Do yourself a favor and get out of the business! The days of the easy money is over, no longer can car sales people make mega bucks in the mortgage industry. I spent the last 25yrs in it and am happy to say I turned 62 this year and retired.................thank God! Most Lo's don't have any idea how to put a loan together...........God knows I tried to teach thme when I was a Wholesale AE..............they really didn't want to learn all they wanted is their loan to fund! When I got into lending you had to learn the programs, beat the streats for leads and work your butt off to get the deal! In the past few years all LO's had to do is answer the phone...................and they made big bucks, now the free ride is over...................you have to be a Sales Person.............and there aren't many out there. My best advise to anyone that is new in lending................well the last three years is.............go back to doing what you did before you got into the mortgage lending business.............at least you will be able to pay your bills and have food on the table.

I would rather ask if a customer wanted fries with their order then talk to a broker about a loan scenario.......................!

Dang! From the imploder forum.

Anonymous said...

If a flipper has his house on the market for more than 2 years but he still can't sell it because he's got a giant mortgage on it, is he still a flipper? If not, I think flipper market share is going to begin decreasing simply because flippers are being converted to long-term homeowners against their will.

Patient Renter said...

Real said: "correct me if I am wrong, but I think this marks the point where we have decreasing inventory Year over Year"

Patient Renter said: "Not yet, just the end of month drop off."

Max said: "looks like inventory rebounded after the typical end-of-the-month drop"

Hah.

Real said...

Real said: "correct me if I am wrong, but I think this marks the point where we have decreasing inventory Year over Year"

Patient Renter said: "Not yet, just the end of month drop off."

Max said: "looks like inventory rebounded after the typical end-of-the-month drop"

Hah.


Um, I hate to ask this, but you do understand what Year over Year means, right? There was in increase in Week over Week inventory but the comment was vs. 2006. So, to be helpful, let me spell out my comment in v-e-r-y small words so you understand, okay? When I say "Year over Year" it means 1st week of July 2007 compared (I hope that word is not too big for you) to 1st week of July 2006.

You see, all the bubbleheads (yourself included) have been crowing about inventory setting new records, sales plummeting casuing a 50% decline, rivers of blood, 4 horsemen of the housepocalypse, yada-yada....meanwhile, I have been saying that inventory was unlikely to surpass 2006 so we would not be setting records and the market is normalizing due to decrease in builder activity and people not being truly forced to sell (burrito theory). Also, I believe I said that Intel was doing fine business-wise so Folsom strong economy would continue. Now, I have been 100% correct in all of my predictions thus far while the bubbleheads have been 100% wrong - facts are facts. You would think the bubbleheads would simply sit quiet until even one ounce of what they have been touting has come true - but nope. I bet you still think the Iraq war is going swimmingly don't you?

Patient Renter said...

Real said: "correct me if I am wrong, but I think this marks the point where we have decreasing inventory Year over Year"

This comment was made in the context of a post that showed weekly data. Unless you were assuming a YOY decrease last week given a WOW decrease, I must have missed the specific YOY data you were referring to.

Patient Renter said...

"thus far while the bubbleheads have been 100% wrong - facts are facts"

I'm curious what predictions the "bubbleheads" have been 100% wrong with, along with the relevant "facts".

AgentBubble said...

pr--Please pay attention. All of us bubbleheads are the ones coming up short for waiting to buy these last few years. We've thrown our money away on rent and investments instead of dropping into a house. By continuing to wait we are just doing more harm to ourselves. Who were we kidding when we predicted prices would drop???? Boy were we ever wrong on that one.

Real said...

This comment was made in the context of a post that showed weekly data. Unless you were assuming a YOY decrease last week given a WOW decrease, I must have missed the specific YOY data you were referring to.

I really don't know what context you are looking for when I clearly state YEAR OVER YEAR.

Who were we kidding when we predicted prices would drop???? Boy were we ever wrong on that one.

Would you like me to show you the bubbleheads posts about a 50% decline in price and that prices would 'revert to the mean' of 2002 + inflation? I think you have been following along enough to know that those predictions have thus far proven to be completely wrong. For areas like Davis, Land Park, McKinley Park, Gold River - prices have not changed. I know that much burn you up inside but facts are facts.....

AgentBubble said...

real, take it easy. I've stated numerous times that 50% is not something I subscribe to. However, you were painting with some pretty broad strokes in your bubbleheads comments...

Again, it all comes down to location (as you and I have both stated). We're at 04 pricing for many of the tract areas like Natomas, West Sac, Lincoln, and Elk Grove. It doesn't take much imagination to think 03 pricing isn't too far behind with rising rates and tighter lending standards. I'm even seeing 05 pricing for Fair Oaks and Carmichael (where I live now and plan to buy).

I couldn't afford East Sac when the prices were lower, and never will in my lifetime. Would I like to live there? Absolutely.

Patient Renter said...

"Would you like me to show you the bubbleheads posts about a 50% decline in price and that prices would 'revert to the mean' of 2002 + inflation?"

Sure, show 'em. I think they usually include a date as well such as "50% decline by 2009", or "prices will have reverted to the mean once we've hit bottom". Is it 2009 yet? Have we hit bottom yet?

Now go take some prozac before you injure yourself.