Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Taking a Closer Look at...Folsom

I've decided to start a new series in which I compare stats for selected areas/cities to give folks a more in depth look at how "local" real estate can be. My data will center around groups of square feet (i.e., 1500-1999). I'm also removing data that's obviously a mistake ($23/SF houses and $2400/SF houses). Time permitting, I'll try a new city/area every week or so. Feel free to suggest places for me to compare. Enjoy!

Folsom
Criteria: Single family residence, 95630 zip code
Comparing: 01/01/06 to 06/30/06 vs 01/01/07 to 06/30/07

Total Unique Listings Entered
06 - 1077 (80 listed more than once)
07 - 875 (120 listed more than once)

<1500 SF
Sales
06 - 111
07 - 88

Average Price
06 - $381,271
07 - $362,127

Average Price/SF
06 - $306
07 - $278

1500 - 1999 SF
Sales
06 - 117
07 - 145

Average Price
06 - $473,340
07 - $425,415

Average Price/SF
06 - $268
07 - $244

2000 - 2499 SF
Sales
06 - 98
07 - 114

Average Price
06 - $545,316
07 - $513,224

Average Price/SF
06 - $243
07 - $228

2500 - 2999 SF
Sales
06 - 42
07 - 55

Average Price
06 - $631,686
07 - $597,527

Average Price/SF
06 - $232
07 - $221

<3000 - 3499 SF
Sales
06 - 25
07 - 34

Average Price
06 - $741,619
07 - $677,398

Average Price/SF
06 - $234
07 - $211

<3500 - 3999 SF
Sales
06 - 21
07 - 16

Average Price
06 - $830,080
07 - $792,968

Average Price/SF
06 - $225
07 - $213

4000+ SF
Sales
06 - 6
07 - 13

Average Price
06 - $1,150,450
07 - $1,065,016

Average Price/SF
06 - $265
07 - $241

38 comments :

Patient Renter said...

Wait, I thought that since Folsom was desirable, prices were increasing?

Sippn said...

For prices to increase, first thing you have to do is work off excess inventory ... which it looks like is happening in Folsom.

Rob Dawg said...

Quick somebody throw a life preserver, John Lockwood has fallen into the deep end of de nile!

Gwynster said...

Any spin in a storm eh?

AgentBubble said...

question for sippn--Assume you were a real estate agent for a moment. Would you recommend a client buy in Folsom right now under these conditions:

1) Client plans to stay for 2 years

2) Client plans to stay for 4 years

3) Client plans to stay for 6 years

Assume 10% down and price tage of $500K for house.

Sippn said...

Don't know the %500k market but I'll look.

Sippn said...

I would look at this:

1143 Burwick (on the golf course, $540K, 2400 sf, 6 years old)

Actually there are 3-4 groups of homes, $450-550K looking on the maps

Near Folsom HS, Empire Ranch, Older Folsom, NW of river. With a family, I would focus on near the 2 high schools.

Yea, prices are higher here than elsewhere, about $200 per foot in this price range, but here's what you get....

A. 1 brand new HS and 1 very new HS, AKA "Intel High"

B. one of the better eating corridors in the region. Good grocery also.

C. Lots of smart people

D. New medical facilities under const.

E. Quick drive to downtown

F. Cool old town.

G. Lots of cops per pop, but a little uptight.

H. Great public sports facilities




2 years might be a wash if you bought for asking price - but breaking even after 2 years is OK. Anything 4-6 years out s/b a gain with leverage.

Inventory is pretty controlled here, no big public builders dumping homes here goofing it up.

Just my opinion.

buying time said...

Great stats Max! Thanks. I was getting discouraged looking in Folsom...but this does give me a glimmer.

buying time said...

Opps...sorry...I meant Agent Bubble. (forgive me I was just on a plane for 6 hours to Atlanta).

Gwynster said...

Funny you mentioned Folsom.

I had to sit in a meeting today with an research group here that I work with and a CA agency. What were they going to be studying? Metals and pesticides in blood samples, arsenic was specifically noted by the PI.

BT, The good news is that if you flew out of ATL, then you probably didn't have to go through Chicago. Only people who fly alot of connecting carriers will get that joke >; )

buying time said...

Gwynster -
So maybe its the time change...but I'm not following what about the study reminds you of Folsom...

BTW - Aviation is my industry! Its one of the few industries that generates more stats than real estate. And prior to this gig I flew through ORD to Madison....oh how I hate that airport.

Gwynster said...

Bah I'm on vicodin after my dentist app. I mixed up EDH and Folsom. All that stuff east of Watt is a big ol' blur to me.

Burrito Supreme said...

Hey real,

BSC is taking a beating after hours, what with the hedge fund collapse and all. Could be a great time for you to jump in and buy the dip!

LOL!!!

p.s. you know, you seem to like burritos and I like burritos as well. Maybe we can get together sometime and I'll share my burrito with you.

Max said...

you know, you seem to like burritos and I like burritos as well.

Oh there you go again, you say you want burritos. Sure hope you can keep them down.

Diggin Deeper said...

"JPMorgan profits hurt by home equity loans

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070718/bs_nm/jpmorgan_earns_dc_2;_ylt=Aq3DkE2AhJDokoLJMODYwQkE1vAI

Not a bad report from JPM until you look into the details. Apparently the market doesn't like it all that well, either.

Loan loss provisions moving up significantly.

Loan loss provisions on the Retail Div up to $587 Mil from $100 Mil a yr earlier. Looks like the Hummer in every driveway isn't working out too well.

Loss provisions in their home equity loans grew from $493 Mil last year to $1.53 Billion this year. Maybe the home ATM business is starting to crack under the pressure.

I'm expecting to see similar results from all financial institutions as they continue to report results.

Anonymous said...

You need to do Granite Bay. Lots of yups. It will show what is really happening in the Sac market.

AgentBubble said...

sippn, I appreciated your honest answers to my questions.

For the four SF ranges below, what are your estimates of value for the last 6 months of 2007? Mine are below, so it'll give us something to look at in 6 months...

1500 - 1999 SF

Average Price
06 - $473,340
07 - $425,415
Last 6 months in 2007 - $400,000

2000 - 2499 SF

Average Price
06 - $545,316
07 - $513,224
Last 6 months in 2007 - $480,000

2500 - 2999 SF
Average Price
06 - $631,686
07 - $597,527
Last 6 months in 2007 - $575,000

3000 - 3499 SF

Average Price
06 - $741,619
07 - $677,398
Last 6 months in 2007 - $645,000

Real said...

I just noticed some new data on Gold River from Money Magazine's Best Places to live - which was really interesting to compare to Folsom....

Median Family Income
GR = $116K
Folsom = $97K

Median Home Price to income
GR = 4.6x
Folsom = 5.1x

Test Score (% above state average)
Math
GR = 63%
Folsom = 51%

Reading
GR = 81%
Folsom = 69%

% Residents with some college
GR = 88%
Folsom = 74%

No wonder I love it in Gold River - we truly are all above average people just like Lake Wobegon....

So, to most of the renters posting on this board, please do not buy in Gold River, we don't want you dragging our stats down...

AgentBubble said...

real, please give me the streets that define Gold River so I can run some stats like I did for Folsom.

Patient Renter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Patient Renter said...

"So, to most of the renters posting on this board, please do not buy in Gold River, we don't want you dragging our stats down..."

You're comments are quite juvenile for someone boasting academic statistics.

smf said...

No wonder I love it in Gold River - we truly are all above average people just like Lake Wobegon....

So, to most of the renters posting on this board, please do not buy in Gold River, we don't want you dragging our stats down...

One word for real - troll.

I could become one of those buyers in GR, and already own my own house. Which, by the way, is far better looking than the cookie cutter stuff that you find in GR.

And our income is above $120K/year, so please stop being such a dummy.

And if GR is so special, how come 11733 Old Eureka did not sell? How come 11925 Rising Sun Way go into foreclosure? Are the people of 11700 New Albion going to recover the money they sunk into that place. Was it not at one point for sale at $850K, now sitting vacant at $700K.

(BTW, all this information is from personal knowledge)

GR was a 'special' place not too long ago, but this bubble created many other 'special' places to give GR plenty of competition.

Sippn said...

If Folsom would only "recruit" at a higher education level for the prison population....


GR is a really nice place, shopping, food, access to freeway, but the kids in middle and high school have a long way to commute and it isolates them from schoolmates.

For raising kids, Folsom is it.

Real said...

Agentbubble, I don't have a listing of the streets and I actually get anything through MLS that is listed under Gold River and then start to weed out listings that were not in the original 25 villages and hence not covered by the HOA and do not have access to the trails, etc.

SMF: And if GR is so special, how come 11733 Old Eureka did not sell?

Maybe because not many people actually want/need a 3500ft^2 5/3 home. Unless you are a mormon or running a group home, I don't see the need.

How come 11925 Rising Sun Way go into foreclosure?

According to Realtytrac, there are no bank owned homes in Gold River. However, if 1 home goes into foreclosure in an area of 3,200 households (0.03%) I can't say that is too shocking. Maybe they bought at the peak and had a divorce or medical problem - I have no idea.

Are the people of 11700 New Albion going to recover the money they sunk into that place. Was it not at one point for sale at $850K, now sitting vacant at $700K.

Don't know - do you know how much the construction costed?

I could become one of those buyers in GR, and already own my own house. Which, by the way, is far better looking than the cookie cutter stuff that you find in GR.

That is a matter of opinion. I value fully grown out trees, a fully developed community plan, good local school, miles of maintained trails, river access, and for the life of me can not think of a reason to buy a home over 2,100 ft^2. Knowing that my neighbors can't do stupid things to their property helps me sleep better at night. If you don't value those things, than please take my advice and don't buy here.

And our income is above $120K/year

Good for you! - you have above average income but seem to be lacking in other areas.

Sippin: If Folsom would only "recruit" at a higher education level for the prison population....

They list the population at 70K in 2006, so I don't know if they are counting inmates of not - I wouldn't think that they are but I could be wrong. I just like to see Gold River rank so high - especially compared with other nearby places like Woodland, Carmichael, Elk Grove....

grilled stuft burrito said...

real, your comments are similar to those found on Ben's blog for the last few years and are equally worthless. The basic mentality goes something like this: RE may decline in some areas, but my area is special and won't decline because of X.

X could be great schools, new immigrants, lack of buildable land, restrictions against building, new major employer, or some intangible "specialness" and on and on and on. All of these SOUND legit, but are total blather as they seek to effectively discount any and all impact that lending insanity has had upon the market over the last several years. I can sum up your entire point of view in one sentence: “Hi, my name is real and I have called the bottom.” Unfortunately for you, the bottom didn’t answer. LOL.

If you are man enough, may I suggest you post some of your brilliant commentary on the following board and see how well your theories hold up against some of the best mortgage industry insiders:

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com

Also, how about a little disclosure? For example, what do you do for a living, etc? Then we’ll know we can just ignore your comments even more than we already do (except to mess with you, which is kind of fun in and of itself.)

smf said...

"According to Realtytrac, there are no bank owned homes in Gold River."

Then you better let the owners know that their homes is not foreclosed...cause that is what they told us when we saw it.

And there are also a few more already noted to be on the pipeline or already foreclosed according to foreclosure.com

The sale stats for GR would indicate that the sale boom occurred there much later than normal in Sacramento, hence, the price declines will come later.

And that later in now for price declines.

"you have above average income but seem to be lacking in other areas."

If you can't argue the merits, shoot the messenger, right?

burrito dreams said...

Probably the best single article I've ever seen that summarizes the whole BSC debacle and describes how quickly and efficiently money can and will be destroyed:

http://tinyurl.com/22a6gm

This is a must read.

Real said...

Are the people of 11700 New Albion going to recover the money they sunk into that place. Was it not at one point for sale at $850K, now sitting vacant at $700K.

Oh, BTW, the owners of this house appear to have bought it in 1999 for $237K per Zillow - is your data correct?

If you are man enough, may I suggest you post some of your brilliant commentary on the following board and see how well your theories hold up against some of the best mortgage industry insiders

Somehow, I don't think the greatest minds in real estate hang out at a freeblog. I would guess this is populated more with angry renters like this blog than people that actually have the money and influence to make/move a market.

Also, how about a little disclosure? For example, what do you do for a living, etc?

I have already disclosed my profession. I am a venture capitalist (seed stage funding) in technology. I am not a real estate investor other than the home I live in and possibly buying a San Diego condo (probably little Italy) for a second home. I have a modest home in Gold River and have zero financial worries so I am about as unbaised as a person can be - which is the big difference between me and most others on this blog. I would bet close to 95% of the people posting on this blog are:
1.) Renters +
2.) Never owned +
3.) Angry about not buying in 2002 +
4.) Low end of the salary scale despite being 30-40 year old

Look at the description and tell me if I am 4/4 on you or if I only got 3 right....

Patient Renter said...

"1.) Renters"

Obviously. Why would I own a depreciating asset?

"2.) Never owned"

Yep (see answer to #3).

"3.) Angry about not buying in 2002"

Nope. I was still in college in 2002 (not yet working) and even if I wasn't, why would I want to own at 2002 prices when they're sure to fall lower?

"4.) Low end of the salary scale"

Nope.

"despite being 30-40 year old"

Nope, younger.

Anymore brilliant assumptions Mr. Venture Capitalist?

smf said...

"Oh, BTW, the owners of this house appear to have bought it in 1999 for $237K per Zillow - is your data correct?"

Yes, house was burned and rebuilt in 2005. And it was not a cheap one. The owners already bought another house and after price drops totalling $150K, still hasn't sold.

And if you talk to agentbubble, he can vouch for my e-mail coming from an consulting engineering firm

"1.) Renters +
2.) Never owned +
3.) Angry about not buying in 2002 +
4.) Low end of the salary scale despite being 30-40 year old"

1.,2. and 3. Bought in 1994, moved up in 2003. Very happy with current 2300 sq.ft. home
4. last year I made $90K, and altogether we made $120K.

And after having looked at GR for a long time, I can tell you prices and sales are going down. If we wait long enough, I bet we can buy a 4000 sq.ft. home in Mother Lode.

Real said...

Nope, younger.

Well, PR, I actually thought that you were a broke 20 something so I would have nailed you as well. After your Sac State econ babble and laughable 'return to the mean' theory, I knew you had to be fresh out of a think tank.

As I posted, Gold River's median income is $116K and I am betting that you don't quite stack up. You obviously don't have enough for a downpayment and can't afford a home today so why are you even on a real estate blog? If you truly believe the sky is falling, why would you waste your time posting on a blog and doing real estate research vs. simply checking out for 2 years and coming back then when you believe prices will have 'normalized'? Are you hoping to get pleasure from someone else's misfortune or do you lack a life? If you truly believe what you say, I can't think of any other reason why you would read this blog for another 2 years....

Patient Renter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
smf said...

"As I posted, Gold River's median income is $116K and I am betting that you don't quite stack up."

I see, can't argue with a 35 yeor old who makes the GR median price, so you shoot the easier target down. That is simply not 'manly' at all.

Now, you claim you are a 'venture capitalist'.

My ass you are...

If you were even involved in the dot.com bubble, you cannot be willingly blind enough to not see the parallels between then and now.

As a matter of fact, if you see a chart of the Nasdaq and where it is now, you see a great visual example of what 'returning to the mean' is.

Now, if you want to argue about GR, do it with me, and quit your petty little insults, as it only indicates to me that you are nothing but a sniveling man who thought they were great s**t during the dot.com bubble and the same now. Not realizing that a rising tide lifts all boats, and all tides go eventually to low.

Must be hard to have lost twice in life in such a short time.

Patient Renter said...

"I knew you had to be fresh out of a think tank"
"your Sac State econ"
"I actually thought that you were a broke 20 something"
"I would have nailed you as well"
"You obviously don't have enough for a downpayment"
"I am betting that you don't quite stack up"

You sure do spend a lot of time thinking about me.

"I can't think of any other reason why you would read this blog for another 2 years.... "

Because I take pleasure in watching the value of assets owned by wierdos like you go down the drain.

Real said...

I see, can't argue with a 35 yeor old who makes the GR median price, so you shoot the easier target down. That is simply not 'manly' at all.

I really don't want to get in a 'penis size' discussion with you but I can promise you that I make much, much more than the GR median not even including my wife's salary.

Now, you claim you are a 'venture capitalist'.

My ass you are...


Now you are just being rude - so, how about you pick the place in Sac (somewhere near Gold River preferably) and we can meet up for a drink, compare tax returns and I will show you my business card. If our household income is higher than the GR average and I am a venture capitalist, you pay me $1,000, write an apology on this blog, and then never post here again. I mean, if you don't believe me, you have nothing to lose....

If you were even involved in the dot.com bubble, you cannot be willingly blind enough to not see the parallels between then and now.

Never involved in the dotcomm bubble. I was in grad school in '00/'01 so I had some gains prior to going back to school but then cashed out to pay for school. However, this comparison to the dotcom bust is about the worst analogy you can make. People can sell stocks and simply hold bonds or other assets. Not everyone can simply sell their house and rent - it does not and will not work that way. Further, buying a home is as much an emotional as it is a financial decision. I hold my home as part of a total financial strategy which provides leverage, diversification, and a hedge against inflation - same reason why I hold muni-bonds.

Yes, house was burned and rebuilt in 2005. And it was not a cheap one.

So, the owners did not have insurance? If the house burned in 2005, I would assume that insurance paid them off at near peak value - how did they lose a bunch of money on that exchange?

Because I take pleasure in watching the value of assets owned by wierdos like you go down the drain.

Okay, so not only did miss out on real estate gains since 2002, but you have not seen anyone really take a financial hit. Smart speculators dumped their 0% down houses back on the banks and most actual owners of $500K+ homes have the financial ability to afford the property. The people getting hurt are the subprime people in Natomas, Elk Grove and South Sac - why you want to see poor people suffer even more is beyond me.

smf said...

"I can promise you that I make much, much more than the GR median not even including my wife's salary."

Then what are you doing living in a 2100 sq.ft. track home?

"Now you are just being rude"

At least I am not being an ass like some I know...

"Never involved in the dotcomm bubble"

Therefore you cannot make an informed opinion on the similarities. Back then, the rise in stock prices was justified by many experts.

"how did they lose a bunch of money on that exchange?"

Holding two mortgages for two years and having a house for sale for over a year has a tendency to drain your finances.

"Okay, so not only did miss out on real estate gains since 2002, but you have not seen anyone really take a financial hit."

Not me, I made out pretty well and sit on about $250K equity right now. And the people of 11733 Old Eureka WILL take a hit, as they HELOCed to buy the property.

I also have my father who is building a spec mansion in EDH, he will take a hit, too.

And another question, real. What other place in Sacramento is 'special' that is full of track homes?

Sippn said...

Don't walk too close to the cage...

bean burrito with cheese said...

Here's my reponse to your impromptu survey.

1.) Renters +
2.) Never owned +
3.) Angry about not buying in 2002 +
4.) Low end of the salary scale despite being 30-40 year old


yes.
no (bought and sold 6 houses over the years.)
no, bought in 2002, sold in 2005.
no, about twice median income.

You got one out of four. There are good times to buy RE and bad times - right now is a very bad time. Being a VC, you should know about market timing. I'm not saying that I can call the top or bottom of the market, but I did sell right at the top so I'm 1/1 so far. :-)

Read the following post and responses and let me know if you still think that a "free blog" of housing bears can only be populated by angry renters. I seriously doubt that you will understand more than a third of what Tanta is talking about. Besides, if you think that is all this blog is, why do you even bother posting here?

http://tinyurl.com/2yx7fy