Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Preliminary July Sales Stats

Early sales stats for July are in. As always, expect another 200 listings or so to be added as agents slowly get around to entering the data in MLS. Assuming we end up around the 1,500 mark for sales, and inventory is hovering just above 18,000, we're at 12 months of inventory.

40 comments :

Rob Dawg said...

13 months of inventory.

Anonymous said...

Delicious! Hopefully we can afford to buy soon! Now if sellers would just get it in their heads that their prices are way to high that would really help!

Nothin' but time said...

Its amazing to see all of the prognostications that have been put forth on this site now coming true. Some predicted cracks in the Alt-A market, and that is now coming to fruition as Wall Street funds that were invested in those loans are hurting.

It demonstrates very clearly the objectives of the pupeteers controlling the MSM, which has been so pathetic about covering this crisis. And of course since they've poo-poo'd it for so long, sellers haven't realized what's going on, so prices have stayed high. They won't stay high next year!

Thanks everyone for educating me on the housing market. I would have been just another casualty of the stooopidness if it wasn't for blogs!

anon1137 said...

Down 28% y-o-y. Ouch!

taqueria burrito said...

Don't know if the word is out on the street yet, but my buddy at Intel (IT department) just told me they are going to have massive layoffs at the Intel Folsom location. This will be a nice punch to the gut for the Folsom/El Dorado Hills area.

But I'm sure Gold River won't be affected. LOL!

Rob Dawg said...

`The IT community has known about Folsom for a long time. Corporations are real stupid about this. Amgen is phasing out of California as well. They just won't admit it.

Gwynster said...

Intel started the phase out a while ago though there has been an air of denial by the staffers.

I have some friends that were moved to AZ. What I don't know is where they will be shifting the majority of the facility to.

Anonymous said...

The people leaving Intel Folsom later this year is from a division that was sold earlier in the year, it was in the news back in Q1. Yes there should be more houses on the market, unless the new company will have a location in Folsom.

Anonymous said...

I also am a bitter renter but the over the top housing prices was created by dumb "flippers", crazy lending and people who signing off on adjustable rate loans.

I'm not going to cheer for good people loosing their jobs to help lower prices.

Karma anyone?

AgentBubble said...

Agreed. I feel very sorry for the folks that lose their jobs, and I would never rally behind that as a cause of lower housing prices.

Rob Dawg said...

Gwynie,
Iffen you ain't gonna be burnin' down sometin' I'm gonna stop bringin' marsmallows.

Gwynster said...

OK let get some background here....

My great management source has already left. She was their chief internet security officer (and the finest cook and friend a girl could have). She is missed.

I have an ex-boyfriend at Intel so he's my denial source. I like getting to tell him "I told you so" so there is a little bit of schadenfreud there but it's directed at a single source. All the other dear friends I had at Intel have moved on to other companies long ago thankfully.

I'm not cheering for Intel bomb to open up housing inventory. I'm not even remotely interested in anything east of Midtown- it's all icky up there!

I'm just an avid demographic watcher even though I'm no longer working in the social sciences. What I've been banging the gong on is how unaffordability is effecting hiring (recruiting difficulties and wages) across many of the large 4 county employers.

Want to see a large local organization having trouble? try recruiting faculty at any UC campus.

Rob - there are enough fires out there now that I don't even have to pretend to get the matches out. What fun is that? >; )

Flames everywhere as credit contracts, the markets bomb, and joe and jane consumer get really nervous. We've seen enough stories about homeowners feeling the pain. I go to brokers outpost to watch the industry as it tries to figure out which way to twist next. I think it's fascinating.

super burrito said...

"I'm not going to cheer for good people loosing their jobs to help lower prices."

Uh, my comment was directed at our resident troll "real" who is always spouting off about how great Intel is doing, how GR real estate will never drop, etc. Hopefully you're not suggesting that I am cheering my buddy getting the axe? C'mon, how stupid can you be?

Intel is not doing great unless you are a Creamer fan living in denial. An no, this wasn't on the Q1 and the "new company" won't be in Folsom, whatever the hell that means. You sure you're not another "rahodeb" from Whole Foods? LOL.

These folks were told just Monday to start looking for another job. Geez, you are dumber and more gullible than real. Talk about denial.

I'd be really surprised if Intel had more than a skeleton crew in Folsom by the end of the year. They make/do nothing special at Folsom that can't be done cheaper elsewhere (hr, marketing, it, and some light r&d). And I'm not wishing for this dumbass. I've got several friends at that facility who are good people. Doesn't mean the axe won't fall. Life's a bitch, get it?

You'll probably be standing around when Folsom is a ghost town in a year saying, "huh, what the hell happened?"

Perfect Storm said...

You'll probably be standing around when Folsom is a ghost town in a year saying, "huh, what the hell happened?

Sippin,

Can you comment on this, I think you mentioned how Folsom has a new highschool with an aka "Intel High". If Intel becomes a ghost town what will be the new aka for that particular highshool.

Really I'm curious.

Anonymous said...

"Intel is not doing great unless you are a Creamer fan living in denial. An no, this wasn't on the Q1 and the "new company" won't be in Folsom, whatever the hell that means. You sure you're not another "rahodeb" from Whole Foods? LOL."

Ok, Intel not doing well, check the stock and look over Q2 earnings asuming you know how to read financials, Intel had a couple rounds of layoff's last year, marketing and IT were hit hard because they hired to many people in these groups. Intel Folsom also had alot of people working in the Flash division that got sold off to be combined with another company. These people are now finding out if they will be leaving or staying.

So now you know what the hell that means.

"I'd be really surprised if Intel had more than a skeleton crew in Folsom by the end of the year"

LOL, thats funny. There is still over 6 to 7 thousand people at the Intel site doing things you would have no clue about. Even if your right and they all got pink slips today, some other high tech company would love to come in and buy all the resources located in
Folsom, including the 6 huge buildings and highly educated work force.

Sippn said...

Yea, pretty close to my research.

Perfect Storm said...

I can't see Intel moving, but I could be wrong, but two things I have heard is that Oracle has and contines to do and so has Franklin Templeton is move jobs to India.

Rob Dawg said...

There is still over 6 to 7 thousand people at the Intel site doing things you would have no clue about.

I just love the "I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you" defense. Entertain for a moment that some of us might know almost as much as you. Rootkit redundancy alogrithims can be designed anywhere.

Anonymous said...

Defence for what? The comment was for super burrito saying that Intel employees can be replaced because they only do HR, IT, and R&D. Unless burrito works at the Folsom site, he has a limited view on who and what people do there.

Yes, jobs can be lost to other contries, but why is Intel different from any other Sac company.

I guess you want big business to go away, economy to crash and then you can buy a house.

I think we can have both, a good economy and houses coming down to a level in which a good paying job will allow me to afford.

Calm down rob dawg, I'm sure your really smart, your condescending tone sounds just like my wife :-)

Bubble Sitter said...

Let's get back to housing for a minute. What I see is sales continuing to drop and inventory continuing to rise. Pretty basic, what that will do to prices.

There are a couple of other items to consider:

1) Auctions. We have seen 3-400 homes sold at auctions in the last few months. Are those homes included in the stats? If not, they should be considered as adding to the sales, bringing inventory down to 11 months (splitting hairs?)

2) Foreclosures. I believe the foreclosures are increasing. They will be impacting the market to a large extent, as they are vacant, must sell units.

The point of all this is to show the market continues to be more imbalanced with no change in direction. The future will bring more and more favorable deals to the patient buyers.

ratlab said...

How did the new high school become "Intel High"? There already is a high school across the street from Intel, it's Folsom High.

While it's true that all of the kids that will be attending Vista del Lago High once it opens would have or are currently attending Folsom High, it's really to serve the homes in the Broadstone, Parkway areas next to EDH.

Mike said...

Any news that will lower prices in Gold River (and Folsom as well) is good for me. Just told my landlord I won't be renewing the lease and will go to month to month in my fair oaks rental.

Hopefully, prices in Gold River will be reasonable enough to buy mid/late next year. Crossing my fingers...

Rob Dawg said...

I guess you want big business to go away, economy to crash and then you can buy a house.

I think we can have both, a good economy and houses coming down to a level in which a good paying job will allow me to afford.


I currently own only personal use houses which more than is fiscally responsible thankyouverymuch.

California is business hostile to extremes that force even established companies to leave. I hate this but accept that I cannot make even a marginal difference.

My tone is not condescending but only seems that way from your exaulted perch.

burrito supreme said...

"I think we can have both, a good economy and houses coming down to a level in which a good paying job will allow me to afford."

You are dead wrong about this, my friend. We absolutely cannot have a good economy and have houses come down to a level where they are affordable. For houses to be affordable to the average person in this area, we're talking a 50% haircut minimum. This is virtually beyond dispute. If you can show me any historical example where a housing bust resulted in a 50% price haircut that did not simultaneously crater the economy, then I will bow down to your exalted perchness. Unless you are suggesting that this time is different or is a new paradigm?

The basic problem is that RE is way too big of a portion of GDP to operate in a vaccuum. Probably around 30-35% of GDP by most estimates. You simply cannot cut off a third of the economy without leaving a serious gaping wound that is fatal.

So yes, severe recession it is, and many will lose jobs. Intel will likely close or be reduced to a skeleton crew, as will many other large (and not large) businesses. This is the best case scenario. A worse case is GD2 and 30% unemployment. Let's not even talk about the worst case.

I am not happy about this, btw.

Sippn said...

BS - so how big a home do you think you're entitled?

I say 1200 sf up to 2 kids is reasonable.

There's over 1000 available in the northeast area under $300k.

Needs some elbow grease my mother might say, of course in her generation, they started out in apartments.

Intel - "Intel High" is the 5 year old New Folsom high school accross the street from Intel, so expensive, it was done in 2 phases, but very cool. THe HS opening this fall is Empire Ranch HS. The cost of these schools is over $20K per new home - not affordable.

I have a friend who s
works in capital improvements @ Intel who is very busy.

Anonymous said...

"If you can show me any historical example where a housing bust resulted in a 50% price haircut that did not simultaneously crater the economy, then I will bow down to your exalted perchness"

exalted perchness, lol, just because I know whats going on with Intel, I'm on a perch, whatever....

We will have to agree to disagree about the outcome of a 50% hair cut.

I'm employed, our family made the choice to live on a single income and have rented for 4 years. I need prices to go down about another 15% to buy a decent home. When it happens, I will buy a home, people will get paid and the cycle of home selling and buying will continue.

Just like the dot.com, the poeple who lost their jobs with a crack pot start up company found other work, the want-a-be RE investors and flippers will loose the money they should not have been givin and go back to whatever jobs they did before this boom.

A correction needed to happen for the health of the economy, I believe its not going to cause the great depression.

bean burrito said...

"When it happens, I will buy a home, people will get paid and the cycle of home selling and buying will continue"

Like I said, RE cycles don't exist in a vacuum. Repeat this again and again until it sinks in. RE cycles don't exist in a vacuum! Listening to this pap reminds me of a typical CNBS episode where they talk about "containment" in a very santized sterile manner.

Unfortunately for you and your little perfect box, containment is spreading. LOL. When RE drops another 15% to your target area, you will suddenly realize that it appears as if it is dropping much farther and faster than you had hoped. Not wanting to catch a falling knife, you decide to hold off on a major purchase to see how things shake out. Then you also begin to wake up to the idea that this may not necessarily be a good thing, and that it may have other effects upon the economy at large. LOL.

C'mon man. Are you very young or very naive? RE cycles don't exist in a vacuum!!!!!

Gwynster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gwynster said...

AHM announced it was closing its doors this morning, 7,000 people now looking for work.

Wells Fargo just upped its jumbo rate to 8%. But this would never affect those overpriced Folsom and EDH homes right?

Lots of large lenders are no longer taking outside business. This will kill the independent shops that don't show up on employment rolls.

If you read Broker Outpost, you'll see that more people are turning to FHA. FHA was a small portion of the market during the run up as it had lots of limits. With rates going through the roof, that 29% DTI, FIVA, O/O, 3-5% down 417k cap with the driving force in the market.

But of course, none of this will effect us?

BS,

Some days you just have to let Sippin blow off seam. He loves a pitched battle and you're new-ish I just threaten to drive out into the "icky lands" and spank him when he gets like this >; )

Sippn said...

Promises...

Was that "comment deleted" for me? Oh the love...

Gwynster said...

hehehehe no that delete was me fixing my "james Joyce stream of conscienceness" typing style.

Sippin, I really hope you do come to the party AB is going to have. I will personally stand you a few rounds of scotch >; )

BTW, did anyone see today's Cramer spot on CNBC? I'd swear the guy was about to cry. I am so glad I pulled everything I had and put it into staggered CDs in May.

Sacchoe said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Patient Renter said...

Yea I was just about to post a link to that Cramer video. Holyyyy crap he freaked out! He quoted some numbers I haven't heard before, something about 14 million mortgages being given with 7 million (50%) having teaser rates?

Perfect Storm said...

The way things are going in the last few months, the housing crash may be even more severe than I originally predicted (and I've been super bearish).

Oh you can never be bearish enough with this housing market fiasco. Were talking serious crash here.

Housing/Mortgage Doom 2007.

Foreclosure hell 2008.

Were right on track for a 50% decline by 2009.

Anonymous said...

I love you guys, thanx for the great work,
Sincerely,

Waitingfor2002pricesbuyer

Anonymous said...

can anyone tell me what percentage is bank buyback/reo or whole number is fine and is number for sale for sac county or metro?

Anonymous said...

Hello,

I need your help in finding any information on a property I saw on realtor.com last week but it suddenly disappeared. The property is located at:
8207 Obsidian Bay Court
Sacramento, CA 95829
built: 2001 4bd/2ba with swimming pool
list price: $251,000

Was it in foreclosure? If it is still available, who is the contact. If it already sold, what was the selling price.
Thanks.

AgentBubble said...

8207 Obsidian Bay Court is now pending sale.

Max said...

The last data I have on it:

8207 Obsidian Bay Ct
Sacramento, CA 95829

Total Loss: $127,000
Percent Loss: 33.6%
Asking Price: $251,000
Bedrooms:4
Baths: 2
Sq. feet:1748
Last Listing Date: 2007-07-21

Listing History:
Down 28.3% from $350,000 On 2007-06-30

True days on market: 36
# of Times Listed: 1

Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-02-25 for $378,000

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the info. This price is amazing, probably the same as back in 2002.