Monday, August 27, 2007

Taking a Closer Look at...Natomas

Next in the series of examining local real estate markets is Natomas. When I think of Natomas, the next thought is Elk Grove and how close the two areas are in just about everything. While it appears Elk Grove is leading the downward spiral in terms of foreclosures and price drops, Natomas is definitely a close runner up.

Natomas
Criteria: Single family residence
Comparing: 01/01/06 to 08/28/06 vs 01/01/07 to 08/28/07

Total Unique Listings Entered
06 - 3,224 (579 listed more than once)
07 - 3,100 (519 listed more than once)

<1500>
Sales
06 - 401
07 - 236

Average Price
06 - $310,897
07 - $265,101

Average Price/SF
06 - $260
07 - $220

1500 - 1999 SF
Sales
06 - 267
07 - 207

Average Price
06 - $405,563
07 - $345,271

Average Price/SF
06 - $235
07 - $201

2000 - 2499 SF
Sales
06 - 167
07 - 144

Average Price
06 - $492,508
07 - $425,036

Average Price/SF
06 - $219
07 - $190

2500 - 2999 SF
Sales
06 - 72
07 - 42

Average Price
06 - $586,092
07 - $529,603

Average Price/SF
06 - $215
07 - $195

<3000 - 3499 SF
Sales
06 - 29
07 - 18

Average Price
06 - $664,200
07 - $599,463

Average Price/SF
06 - $206
07 - $187

<3500 - 3999 SF
Sales
06 - 12
07 - 3

Average Price
06 - $735,791
07 - $687,333

Average Price/SF
06 - $196
07 - $187

4000+ SF
Sales
06 - 7
07 - 8

Average Price
06 - $787,286
07 - $857,437

Average Price/SF
06 - $178
07 - $191

9 comments :

Mike said...

I sold my house in Natomas in Late 2004 for $263/sq ft (which was purchased in 2001 for $138/sq ft).

Although lot of people tell me I sold too early to get maximum profit.According to stats here, it looks like I pretty much sold at the peak price.

I also agree that Natomas and Elk Grove are very similar. Lived in both locations, and they both are just OK neighborhoods. The only thing Natomas has over Elk Grove is the short distance to Downtown. Very important, if you are a State worker.

AgentBubble said...

Mike,

I completely agree on the proximity to downtown as the one thing Natomas has over Elk Grove. Aside from that, both places are pretty low on areas I'd choose to live for the long term. $263/sq ft is a great price to sell at.

Gwynster said...

I'm sorry AB. I'm normally pretty chatty burt I just can't get worked up over Natomas. It will become our new South Sac.

Mike said...

Well, Natomas has proximity to downtown but it also has flooding issues so the advantage over Elk Grove is canceled out. So they are both about the same.

And to those that said, I jumped the gun on selling my house. Now I can refer to them to this blog to show them I sold my house at a good time.

Gwyn, Natomas already has its "South Sac" Its call "South Natomas" The older Natomas area. Although the newer North Natomas area which I lived in is not that bad. Infact, certain north Natomas areas (such as Westlake where some King's players live) is pretty good in my opinion.

Gwynster said...

OK it will be our 9th ward then

DrDoom said...

Thanks agan to agent bubble and max for sharing their analysis.

I continue to attempt to model future market activity for 1-5 years using last down cycle data from 1980's-1990's. Crude results say prices down around 5 percent next year and continuing down in the same range for 4 years more. I use CBIA California single family housing starts and change in OFHEO price index Sacto MSA. Does anyone have an opinion on these data sources?

The 2nd quarter 2007 OFHEO number is due out on Thursday 8/30/07. 1st quarter was down 4.41%. I am guessing 2nd quarter will show same house values down 6.0%. The platypus in my office has picked down 5.4%. We have a pizza riding on it. Does anyone else have an estimate?

Anonymous said...

Might you be able to do some analysis on east sac, and the arden park/sierra oaks neighborhoods? Interested to see how these neighborhoods are holding up. Thanks

AgentBubble said...

anon--The problems with those areas is the small amount of volume that takes place. The other issue is that E. Sac has million dollar homes and ghetto homes in the same zip code that can distort the findings. But, I'll definitely look into it and see what I can turn up for the next post.

VirtualNatomas.com said...
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