Monday, September 03, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for September 1, 2007

A lot of stuff to do today, so no commentary. Hopefully most of you are reading this on Tuesday at work, not on your day off! If you have any questions, ask them in the comments, and I promise I will answer them during the week.


DrDoom said...


Me first! Me first!

As always thank you for the analysis and insight.

Your current posting suggests we may have hit a peak in Fits and Sits which surprises me. I would expect them to rise into early next year based on Subprime ARM reset curve assuming a few months lag from reset to listing. Is there another factor or will the Sits resume the climb?

I am interested in working on predicting 3-24 months forward. Any suggestions on method or data sources would be appreciated. This is what I have so far:

Parts of the local retail economy are impacted strongly by single family "SF" home starts (CBIA). SF Starts follow SF House prices (OFHEO). The current correction is very similar in behavior to the early 1990's (both CBIA and OFHEO data) but there are macroecomonic differences (unemployment, interest rates, etc). I do not have multiyear data to measure correlation but wonder does SF House pricing correlate strongly with inventory levels relative to sales? Is the total inventory level now driven by SITs or by REO levels? Are SITs and REO following the subprime curve with some time delay?

I am trying to predict (model) SF housing prices 1,2,3 years out and then track it for the same time. Any comments or suggestions of good data sources would be deeply appreciated.

By the way the stuff I have is rough but I am happy to share it.

patient renter said...

"Hopefully most of you are reading this on Tuesday at work"

Blogging from work? Never!