Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Distressed Properties Update

I'm starting to sound like a broken record...The month of October brought more of the same. Inventory stands at 17,553 for the 4 county area (drop of 478 for the month). Distressed properties increased by 610, bringing the new total to 6,693, or 38% of the TOTAL listing count! Compare this to Elk Grove with 52% and El Dorado Hills with 17% and you get an idea how much difference a few miles can make.


Max said...

I noticed that Elk Grove was conspicuously absent from the Bee's "Cities are in trouble because everyone's losing their house" article today. What a strange place this town can be sometimes.

Anonymous said...

Didn't a certain Bee writer buy an Elk Grove house at the top of the market?

Gwynster said...

The outrage from the people who did use some sense and got fixed rates in the last few years is really starting to heat up.

As a cronic watcher of the social condition, I'm enjoying the hell out of how this is playing out in a textbook fashion.

Crime rates already are excelerating and people are snapping over small stuff. Will journalism be our next boom industry or emergency medical care?

(yes I'm being pissy today - somebody gave me their cold)

... said...

G - the outrage? you're talking about the general public taking the advice from the PHeD Chair - how can you fault them?

How 'bout those ivy league MBA's cranking out the faulty models that fed the billions of dollars of fuel on the housing market. Follow the bonuses.

What do you call it when the bond math uses a 2-4% flat line appreciation for 30 years without variances and standard deviations to indicate risk? in a classroom, I call it a mistake, at Goldman Sachs, et al, when the IQ hits above 180, I call it criminal conspirasy.

Gwynster said...

yes but 2 monkeys with a pencil could look at the price compared to income and see that none of it was sustainable.

Blame the model if you want, but personal responsibility has to come in somewhere.

patient renter said...

Max, AB, Could you help me find the sale info on a home in my hood? It was on FIT many months ago.

1262 Darling Way Folsom
MLS (from the old FIT listing): 70018593

AgentBubble said...

pr--That property sold for $410,000 on 10/26/07. Also sold for $401,000 on 2/04. This could be a mistake since Folsom properties are immune to price declines ;-)

Anonymous said...

Sippn, is the manufacturer of rope responsible for the guy who hangs himself. Whatever happened to personal responsibility! When the ducks quack, feed them!

... said...

No, but the doctor who gives the patient a garbage bag of vicodin and says "take one a day" will probably end up in jail while the patient OD's.

The "experts" - loan officers, agents, Fed chairmen, media - all said to the laymen, "buy, use variable rate loans, etc."

What I'm saying about wall street is that they fraudulantly packaged the CDO's and sold them to investors (like CAPERS) and when discovered, the investors dropped it like a rock - August credit freeze. This wasn't just some realization that the market was too high, it was "oops we've been dooped" we want our money back.

There's the user, the pusher and the big boss.

DrDoom said...

There is a Goldman Sachs articlebr/>
from Oct 21 that concludes California housing prices are 35-40% over-valued. They use OFHEO house price index and Disposable Income/Long-term rates 1985-2007 to draw conclusions.

Goldman Sachs analysis is discussed at irvinehousingblog and then in more detail at seattlebubble.com

No big surprises but the 40% is higher than I would expect and it is interesting that Goldman Sachs is now modeling housing prices.

Anonymous said...

Sippn, I agree with you to an extent. However, CALPERS has some of the most experienced/ educated people in the market. I am more apt to give Johnny Lunch Bucket a pass, but not the likes of CALPERS.
I'm not sure the CDO's were fraudulantly packaged, but rather no one chose to look deeper into the underlying securities until the loans started defaulting. No one wanted to take the punch bowl before the party end was in site. Pensions/Hedge funds and yield hunry investors drove the demand for these investments. And once again, when the ducks quack you feed them. Whatever, the product or whatever the service.

Gwynster said...


How do you think our friends in the El Macero condos feel about this latest entry?
MLS #: 70116671

patient renter said...

AB, thanks for the info on that house :)

patient renter said...

I'd like to ad one more comment since that sales price just sunk in:

12/05/2006: $534,066
10/26/07: $410,000

That is a $125,000 price drop, or to look at it another way, -23%+ IN 10 MONTHS! In Folsom!

Clearly Folsom is immune.

... said...

Anony - thank youfor the acknowledgement - CAPERS likely relied on hte rating services that relied on the fibs told to them.

I learned enough modeling and stats in school to smell a rat. I have seen too any untrained "salesmen" manipulate sophisticated financial models until the money poured out to them. Follow the big money and you will find the guilty parties in wall street. Bud Fox.

Anonymous said...

"As a cronic watcher of the social condition, I'm enjoying the hell out of how this is playing out in a textbook fashion.

Crime rates already are excelerating and people are snapping over small stuff."


You enjoy the fact that crime is on the rise?

Gwynster said...

"You enjoy the fact that crime is on the rise?"

Oh sure, doesn't everyone?
**rolls her eyes**
That may be the stupidest question I've seen all week.

Anonymous said...

You seem to take delight in the misfortunes of others, just so you can say I told you so.

Schadenfreude, anyone?

You're obviously educated, why not a more mature approach?

patient renter said...

"told you so" is how some people learn to improve themselves.