Monday, November 05, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for November 3, 2007

A couple of interesting milestones occurred this week. One, the SIT ratio in Sacramento County breached 25% of total inventory. There also seems to be no top in sight for total dollars lost and average percent loss per house. Average SIT loss per house is now at 18% of previous price paid:




On the FIT data, I would like to point out again that, although the importance of tracking "flippers" has diminished as stress in the marketplace has overwhelmed regular sellers, the two-year cutoff for defining a flipper will work nicely as a proxy for detecting REO inventory as it comes on the market. Indeed, after several weeks of declines, flipper (and FIT) market share and inventory has begun to stabilize:



Another way to track the "REO factor" as it relates to regular listings might be to look at weekly average time-since-last-sale for all listings. A downward trend could indicate an increase in REO inventory on the market since foreclosures are recorded as sales by the county assessor. I'll be exploring this angle in the near future.

Other than that, the normal seasonal trends are firmly in place. Once exception is $0-$200K inventory, which continues to grow in both Sacramento and Yolo.





3 comments :

smf said...

Thanks for all your work.

One research question, let me see if I can phrase it correctly.

During a 'normal' market, there is a certain percentage of starter, move-up, and higher end homes built.

Did these percentages change, and if so, how, during the bubble?

Mostly wondering to see if there are more of an excess in certain types of housing inventory.

wrong moves said...

Thanks for all of the data. I love pouring over it and trying to predict where we will be in a given amount of time.

It was thrown back in my face one time though. I was told I could look at all the chart I wanted, but this is California and real estate is more expensive.

I am waiting for the fundamentals to kick in. When Joe and Jane Shopper can REALLY afford a home on their average Sac area income, I want to meet the naysayers again to explain to them what the fundamentals can do to/for them.

Max said...

Mostly wondering to see if there are more of an excess in certain types of housing inventory.

I think this would be captured in the "Price Inventory Levels" graph. From that graph you can clearly see both the market tidal forces (seasonal change) and countertrends ($0-$200K increase).

Thanks for all of the data. I love pouring over it and trying to predict where we will be in a given amount of time.

Not a problem. Although it's difficult to predict inflection points, spotting the trends is easy. Since the RE market moves so slow, you'll have plenty of time to react once trends begin to change.