Sunday, December 30, 2007

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for December 29, 2007

End of the year time here at Sacrealstats, and what a year it's been. Record high inventory for most of the year, record low sales, record price drops, and huge increases in market stress indicators were some of the themes. Here's a look back:

Record inventory for most of the year (including now)

Inventory began increasing in the four-county Sacramento area at a rate to amounts unseen in recent memory, and is currently at record levels for end-of-year:


We began 2007 with over 12,000 inventory listings, and we end the year roughly 25% higher at over 15,000.

Rise of the SIT, demise of the FIT (for now)


Market stress indicators rose (and are still rising) at a rapid pace. Asking price dollar losses (difference between previous selling price and current asking price) for sellers taking a loss rose 900% from $28 million to over $250 million in 2007. While Flippers In Trouble inventory has declined since September (believed to be due to increased foreclosure activity), Sellers In Trouble inventory has continued to grow. SITs now make up 30% of all listed housing inventory in Sacramento County, and average percent loss per SIT listing is well over 20% of previous purchase price. In a sign that things will continue to deteriorate, average days since last sale for SIT listings continues to rise.








Record asking price drops as sellers begin to capitulate

Sellers finally began to get the message in 2007, with record asking price decline occurring in all four counties. Median asking prices in Sacramento County fell 20% by the end of 2007, while average $/sqft values fell 17%:



Not surprisingly, there was a concurrent rise in lower-priced inventory, and a drop in higher-priced inventory throughout the year. Price drops also occurred in roughly 10% of all listings each week:





Well, so much for the year in review. Coming up next: Predictions!

4 comments :

paul said...

Much thanks for all of your effort and work on this all year! It is a great tool and read.

Perfect Storm said...

We began 2007 with over 12,000 inventory listings, and we end the year roughly 25% higher at over 15,000.

I suspect inventory will start rising soon.

Were right on track for a 50% decline by 2009.

Real said...

"Inventory began increasing in the four-county Sacramento area at a rate unseen in recent memory"

Not to nitpick too much, but this statement is incorrect. The rate of increase was much higher in 2006 than in 2007 as seen by the higher slope of the 2006 inventory build.

Max said...

Not to nitpick too much, but this statement is incorrect.

You are correct, sir. That's what happens when I write a post before morning coffee. :)