Tuesday, January 29, 2008

A Look at the Last 30 Days

Just for grins, I thought I'd compare the last 30 days of sales for Sacramento County to the same period over the last 2 years. The numbers below shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, but they do show the acceleration in price declines. Interesting to note is that the average/median home size did not change very much. And yes, I know the dates below are more than 30 days, I just made it that way so it's easier to look at :-)

2005/06 = December 29, 2005 - January 29, 2006
2006/07 = December 29, 2006 - January 29, 2007
2007/08 = December 29, 2007 - January 29, 2008

# of Sales
2005/06 - 1121
2006/07 - 836
2007/08 - 666

Avg Sales Price
2005/06 - $391,898
2006/07 - $372,890
2007/08 - $275,330

Median Sales Price
2005/06 - $355,000
2006/07 - $345,000
2007/08 - $259,950

Avg $/SF
2005/06 - $252
2006/07 - $227
2007/08 - $165

Median $/SF
2005/06 - $255
2006/07 - $219
2007/08 - $155

Average SF
2005/06 - 1599
2006/07 - 1676
2007/08 - 1679

Median SF
2005/06 - 1437
2006/07 - 1542
2007/08 - 1536

Also worth noting, for the month of January 2007, we had 1,318 sales. At present, for January 2008 we have 847. This comparison is for the 4 county area, not just Sac County.

7 comments :

Sippn said...

Start looking at last Tuesday forward, it feels like a bump.

My SIL has been trying to show REOs but they keep selling before she arrives!

Higher end usually starts late Jan as football ends, but there is some reaction to the ease of jumbo loans in the past week and there seems to be anticipation of a higher conforming loan limit.

Patient Renter said...

Now those are some compelling stats. Tnx Max!

Max said...

Tnx Max!

I wish I could take credit, but these are Agent Bubble's numbers. :)

inpd said...

I have two million dollar questions that I think get to the to root of when to buy:

a) What's behind the disconnect that Max found between newspaper reported record
numbers of foreclosures and not many showing up in the MLS inventory.

b) Was Sacramento over-valued in 2000
or priced right?

b) Is important since we can estimate
the near bottom if it was not
overvalued by factoring in reasonable
real estate growth starting at 2000
prices.

Gwynster said...

inpd

Under in 95-97, correct 98, the wacko party started in 00'.

Just look at MHI vs median home price by county.

inpd said...

Thanks!

Does everyone concur with this.

In 1998 the new Mace Ranch in
Davis (nice 1800 sq ft homes) sold
for $185,000. They are now over $500K

So it will take years and years
to correct at this rate. I don't
see sellers willingly drop their
price 66%!


> Under in 95-97, correct 98, the wacko
> party started in 00'.

> Just look at MHI vs median home price by > county.

Gwynster said...

A pair of researchers I know bought a home in Mace Ranch in 02 for 265k. This was from a flipper in 01. The same model sold for 890k in early 06'. Davis is beyond insane.

I think Max can give you data on sales from 02 to 06. The people who bought recently are hosed. The fun really gets going when the boomers start aggressively liquidating in a few more years.