Monday, February 04, 2008

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for February 2, 2008

Stress indicators accelerated for the worse last week, after a rather moderate January. The most dramatic change was in the total Sellers In Trouble dollar losses category, which jumped 6% from $245 million to $260 million in Sacramento County. The other counties saw similar jumps. After growing by only 2.3% for the first four weeks of January, SIT inventory shot up by 3.1% between January 26 and February 2.

The only stress indicators that showed any improvement were (of course) the Flippers in Trouble metrics. No thaw in those numbers yet, and if my recent former pot house post is indicative of current REO pricing strategy, it's going to take a while.







Other than that, nothing too exciting. Inventory continues to slowly climb as new listings come on, and prices continue to fall steadily. One interesting thing to note is that sub-$200K inventory is about to overtake $200K-$300K inventory. From space, it looks like all of Del Paso Heights, Oak Park, and North Highlands are for sale.






6 comments :

Anonymous said...

Wow. I'm hungry for more maps from space. What does EG look like from up there? The foothills? Davis/Woodland?

Gwynster said...

Woodland is a big ol' mess. It will be worse this summer.

Wadin' In said...

Here is a recently new phenomenon: The lenders are not filing public NOD's! At least they are not showing up on my sources. I know of several houses owned by bay area fippers with Option One mortgages. They are clearly in arrears, since Option One sent representatives to the houses (surprise: there are tenants living there!)

Can a lender start a trustee sale (N.O.T.) without filing a public N.O.D.?

Max said...

Can a lender start a trustee sale (N.O.T.) without filing a public N.O.D.?

I don't think so. The lender could get the borrower to sign over the property voluntarily, but only if they're the only one with a lien.

Usually there's a second, a HELOC, and back taxes owed as well, which makes this scenario very unlikely. There is something very fishy going on.

If anyone out there has a decent foreclosure list they want to share, I can run it against the MLS just to see how much shadow inventory there really is...

Darth Toll said...

Max, would that include things like foreclosure.com? I've got a 7 day free account that you can use if you want but I don't know if that's what you're looking for.

From what I have seen, most foreclosures on foreclosure.com do show up on the MLS. However, there are literally thousands of "preforeclosures" on the list around this area that don't show on the MLS. Given what wadin' in said, the list of pre-foreclosures may jive more with what we think should be actual foreclosures. Make sense?

Max said...

Given what wadin' in said, the list of pre-foreclosures may jive more with what we think should be actual foreclosures. Make sense?

I agree. A good metric would be the listing rate for pre-foreclosures over time. I suspect that early on the rate would have been relatively high. At this point, who knows?