Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for February 9, 2008

With all the hubbub, I've been neglecting my stats. I'm going to let the graphs speak for themselves this week since we're halfway to next week already. And, if you haven't already, please check out my Natomas Area Commercial Real Estate Photolog. Chock-full of commercial real-estate goodness.











9 comments :

Bubble Sitter said...

The stats do not seem to be changing direction. There are a few less flippers in market, but it is amazing how out of balance our market became over the last 5 years. I wonder when we will see any kind of flattening in your graphs. It does not appear to be happening any time soon. Will this just keep getting worse for all of 2008?

Max said...

The stats do not seem to be changing direction.

I still think people are skipping trying to sell their places, and heading directly into foreclosure. The banks have yet to list en masse, so we're seeing SIT and FIT inventory stabilize, even as dollar and percent losses skyrocket.

The negative cashflow on this "shadow REO" inventory has got to be huge. Upkeep, property taxes, HOAs, and mello-roos have got to be taking their toll.

The only thing keeping this market from absolute free-fall is this inventory remaining off-market. The dam will break eventually, probably when one of the major players goes belly-up.

Darth Toll said...

"The only thing keeping this market from absolute free-fall is this inventory remaining off-market. The dam will break eventually, probably when one of the major players goes belly-up."

So the executive summary is: Sit tight and keep the powder dry.

Bubble Sitter said...

Max, I do see some foreclosures taking a long time to come to market, but why do you think there are that many being held "off-market"

Are you suspecting this is the case or do you see something I am not seeing. And if it is only a suspicion, let's try to prove it.

We could each take a bubble area and take a couple of reresentative housing tracts and do a survey. It is easy to spot the foreclosures and then we can compare against what is listed for sale as REO.

Ideas?

siflsockpuppet said...

I rent in the Franklin Reserve area, a foreclosure hotspot. The house next door to me was foreclosed in October. It has not been listed for sale on MLS. The house is fairly new and from what I can tell has not been trashed. Why hasn't it been listed and how many others are out there like this one?

Sippn said...

Those REO holders are understaffed and unable to process everything.... usu takes up to 6 months before a foreclosed house is brought to market.

Looking at your distressed properties the other day, the numbers are huge, but to put it into perspective, its less than the number of homes large tract builders REDUCED building last year vs 2005/2006 and there's a lot of displaced people going into rentals, etc.

So as far as housing supply is concerned, its as if a couple of large national tract builders got here and decided to produce homes (REOs) with dead lawns, dirty carpets, needing paint, missing tacky brass ceiling fans and a few appliances....if you're lucky. Are they selling? yes to a lot of cash investors and first time buyers getting pretty good financing. Yech!

I'm thinking the delay in lender processing REOs and the lowering of rates and other govt intervention will spread out the foreclosures more thinly over the next couple of years.

So yesterday, a friend thinks I'm nerdy enough to actually read the SAR stat sheet he sends me...I do. Reading it, bad, bad, bad, OH!

Found what you would call a "dead cat bounce"... YOY new escrows up 56%.

Louisville KY real estate said...

bubble sitter,

It sure seems that way, huh?

Real said...

Are you fishing for page hits? I must have gone to this page 50 times in the last 3 days looking for updates....

Max said...

No, I've been running a script on my data server that's taking a long time. I'll have the stats up this morning, I swear. :)