Sunday, March 16, 2008

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for March 15, 2008

Whew! It took me longer than I thought to finalize the new asking price distribution graph. After the debacle last week, I need a break from code jockeying. Anywho, submitted for your approval:

Note: The data used in these graphs are derived in exactly the same way.

Clearly bulk inventory is moving toward the lower end of the cost curve, especially in Sacramento County. Notice how the $0-$200K point became unstuck only by the end of the third quarter 2007. Yolo County is also showing some dislocation at the lower end. El Dorado and Placer Counties are remarkably stable considering the conditions in the surrounding counties, although Placer is showing some acceleration below $500K.

I would like to thank Average Buyer once again for the inspiration. If you guys have any other suggestions on better ways to look at the data, please let me know.

As for market stress indicators, here are the final revised graphs:

As you can see, all the series have been revised significantly downward since the release. It does appear that a significant inflection point occurred at the beginning of the year in both FIT and SIT market share, but the dollar loss and days since last sale measures continue to deteriorate. Interestingly, inventory growth has completely stalled, and asking price drops are moderating:

It looks like a spring dead-cat bounce is underway. Gather ye rosebuds.


... said...

The high end is interesting, don't expect it to act the same as the median...

Killn time, visited several resort developments in Truckee & Northstar area and whew.... mostly sold out land starting with $300-500K lots. Salesman said the $2 million lots sold the quickest (folks I'm not stupid enough to not check out actual closings)

In relative terms, there's more going on up there than all the high end developments combined in the Sacramento region.

Wadin' In said...


Since when to you start to beleive the salesman?

There are a lot of foreclosures in the Tahoe area and probably more to come. Why all those Bear Stearns execs will be putting their west coast pads up for sale soon!

I remember bidding on auction properties in Tahoe in 1993. That will soon be coming again. There are many developers who are also in trouble up there.

I do appreciate your perspectives, but I do believe we will see some screamin' deals in Lake Tahoe in the next couple of years.