Friday, April 04, 2008

March Sales Data

I've decided to wait a few days into the new month to post the previous month's sales data. This gives all those slacker agents time to update their pending listing status to sold :-).

March 2008 was no different than any previous March. About a 12% increase in sales from the previous month. It's funny when you compare the 3,314 sales from March 2005 though. Those were some crazy times!

I'm also including a pending sales chart starting from the 1st of the year. It's for the 4-county area, and it's the only data I have for pending sales unfortunately. If anyone has data going back a year or more, I'd love to see it.


Max said...

So, the pending to sales ratio:

Dec-07: 49.6%
Jan-08: 40.5%
Feb-08: 40.2%
Mar-08: 36.1%

... said...

Sometimes you just have to look at paper reports!

Sac SAR only, but Lander has links to the other 2 counties. You'll ahve to wait a few days until they publish. Notice the YOY difference in YTD "new escrows" + 57%. Hmmmm

Anonymous said...


And the number of closed escrows roughly the same once you factor in the extra day in Feb this year, so some strange data. Feb 07 and Feb 08 look almost the same YOY for AB's sales data yet March 08 shows significant deterioration YOY.

Are you thinking that a lot of escrows just falling apart due to the short sale restrictions?

Lander said...

Sometimes you just have to look at paper reports!

And sometimes you have to dig a little deeper. SAR revised the way it calculates inventory and new escrows back in August 2007. Notice the "N/A*" under New Escrows "Last Year". The new method substantially increased both the inventory numbers and new escrows (compare the July stats in the July & Aug 2007 reports). Therefore any comparison between the unrevised number and the revised number will make this year's number seem better than it really is. You'll have to wait till July 2008 for accurate YOY comparisons.

Bottom line, SAR made an "error" in publishing the YOY change. They made the same error a few months ago, which they promptly corrected upon notification. I can't be their nanny every month.

... said...

ouch, my bad

Deflationary Jane said...

Thanks Lander.

I don't look at anything the NAR or their minions put out so I was wondering what he was fussing about.

I can tell you that this is spring looks just like last spring and the spring before that. I'll get worried in August.

Perfect Storm said...

The realtorxxxxx have been preaching multiple offers bullshxx on the radio for weeks, but when the numbers come out nothing.

Were right on track for a 50% decline by 2009.

... said...

OK looked again.

While you have data for a 67% increase in pendings in the last 90 days or so, closings are up only 30%.

Longer closings? Fewer successful closings (builders are talking about cancellation rate decreasing)?


... said...

I'm thinking pending to sales ratio should have a 30+ day lag.... December pending:January closing (maybe February) It should smooth the numbers out.

Anonymous said...

OK I am getting lost.

Is there an improvment or the opposite in this spring.

agent bubble (or was it Max) predictaed a dead cat bounce

btw this give clear trend numbers:

... said...

anon, it requires a login!

Anonymous said...

I look, stare and ponder the MLS daily - prospector MLS. If you take note to the areas with bigger lots (Rio Linda, Elverta) you'll see some interesting action. The reality is a lot of inventory and continued increases in that inventory is not good. What is good are the price stablizations we see in certian areas (hence; Rio Linda, Elverta)and the subtle increases by the people who have a good product and not simply some taken back REO that needs major overhaul.

Anonymous said...

Food For Thought

I wonder how loopy the stats are when the realization that many of the short sales that show pending are not true deals in the making but simply feelers to gauge what the bank will and will not accept.

... said...

Interesting question, look at my stats on Antelope - SS are not a real part of the sales picture.

... said...

Duh, I forgot, SS are only shown as pending when the bank has accepted the SS deal, right? So those are really accepted deals.


Why are they late in adding the data? We all know they certainly don't have anything else going on :) except maybe looking for a new career lol.