Thursday, May 15, 2008

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for May 10, 2008

Wish I could say I'm glad to be back, but that was the most relaxing honeymoon. :) I see there's been some interesting developments while I was out of wi-fi range... I'll have more to say after the data run this Saturday; in the meantime here are last week's graphs. (The data server never takes a vacation.)












9 comments :

Patient Renter said...

Welcome back. Hope you got a nice tan or something.

Buying Time said...

Looks a like more than a dead cat to me. I don't necessarily thing there will be a bounce (in prices), but it does appear we are past the price acceleration phase, and back to the slow erosion phase.

Anonymous said...

let's wait a little longer.

Max said...

Mr. Mortgage and others have been speculating about the cause of the "improvement" in inventory numbers across the country, and the focus is now on "shadow inventory." You'll recall I did a post on this over a year ago. I re-ran my countrywide data analysis, and the results were the same as last year: of the 275 Sacramento area REOs listed on the Countrywide site, only 141 are in the MLS. This probably means that CFC is doing fine as a property broker on its own, so is cutting out the middle-man.

Whatever their reasons for abandoning the MLS, it's clear that CFC at least is functioning as its own market-maker in Sacramento. Therefore, the MLS data is giving us much less than a whole picture of the housing market compared to last year.

I think it's time I bite the bullet and subscribe to a foreclosure listing site. Any recommendations?

Mike said...

My bet is this improvement in inventory levels is only temporary.

I know of several people personally that have purchased or are in pending situation in last 2-3 months. Most of them are buying as investment, it is not their main home.

What we are seeing is initial phase of investors jumping the gun hoping this is the bottom of price range. These investor pool will dry up by end of summer and REOs will once again bring the inventory back up.

Sacramento home prices are still way too high for most people that are making average salary. Gas prices and State budget situation will not help the matter.

Deflationary Jane said...

All I know is that the inventory in my old search criteria is still going up. It went down slightly in Jan/Feb but it's all back and then some. I'm now getting listings in Midtown and Davis (nothing I'd consider though).

Max, I use a trustee listing service, I don't use a foreclosure listing per se. I haven't seen a decrease at all since Feb. What's interesting is that amount of 450k and up listings and the homes in the pricey neighborhoods.

Darth Toll said...

Mike,

Like you, I know of many knife-catchers that are purchasing "investment" properties and are convinced this is the bottom and they believe you should buy now or be priced out forever. They will get wiped out and become the latest round of victims of the housing bubble. $200/sf is not some kind of a deal. $150/sf is not some kind of a deal. $100/sf is not really a deal either unless it is primo location.

As folks over at CR have consistently said, there can be no bottom until the common wisdom is that RE is a terrible investment and that it always goes down. Have you ever hear anyone say this? I sure haven't. The bottom line is that there is still way too much optimism and none of the washout despair necessary for a true bottom. I'll be the first to admit it if I ever see it, but so far all I've seen is persistent optimism. Not the makings of a bottom in the aftermath of a financial mania...

norcaljeff said...

I see a ton of properties that hit my screening that do not show on realtor.com or MLS. I think they are too cheap to pay the fees. I see at least a dozen new properties a week not showing up anywhere but on craigslist or a couple other sites so the numbers definately are not telling the whole truth.

incessant_din said...

What I see is that the inventory is stable, but the SIT portion is stable and huge. Most stats seem to be stable, which might well be an inflection point or a bottom (or top, depending on your POV). If I were an investor, I would wait a couple of months to get a direction on the market. A flat market makes it hard to make money.

I get the impression that the left over euphoria is still twinkling in people's eyes, and they think that these are deals. Maybe they're right. Maybe Arnold can make payroll by selling IOUs on lottery vig... Time will tell.