Sunday, June 22, 2008

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for June 21, 2008

Inventory increased slightly this week. Not by a whole lot (80 listings), but this was the first increase since March:


Also, as previously noted by this blog last month using asking price data, and on Lander's blog this week using sales data, the Spring price change moderation is over. Overall market price declines are once again in full-effect, with a 2% drop in the median over the last 3 weeks:



It looks like inflection points have been reached in most of the market stress indicators for Sacramento County. Logic would seem to indicate that asking price is the leading indicator of market direction at this point (with the REO process stretching out for months or years), but we will know more in a few weeks.









7 comments :

Anonymous said...

Enjoy reading your blog.
Just a nit pick - on the price index for Sacramento why not use 450 and 200 for the price range on the graph so all four graphs look the same and have the same consistant 250 point spread.
GBDC

Max said...

Yeah, I thought about that, but each county's range is so different, the graphs would be less informative otherwise.

Mike said...

Could this be the beginning of the end for the Spring Dead Cat Bounce (SDCB)?

I was predicting that SDCB would be over by fall as investors and buyers demand that had built up in the last couple years would be satiated by later this year. There are only certain amount of REOs investors/buyers can absorb.

With Fed hinting interest cuts are over (may start to raise rates soon) and mortgage rates going up we will see another leg down on home pricing. My guess is another significant price drop on home prices should occur by this winter/ next spring. It really is starting to look like waiting until end of year or next year is best bet for buying a home. Although, I am not sure I can personally hold off that long.

Anyway, that is my Bold prediction for the year. 1) SDCB over by September 2) Another 10-20% off current pricing by early 2009. Of course I could be wrong :-)

Max said...

I was predicting that SDCB would be over by fall as investors and buyers demand that had built up in the last couple years would be satiated by later this year. There are only certain amount of REOs investors/buyers can absorb.

This is true, and combined with the seasonal component, it shouldn't be too surprising that things are on the downswing once again. The only fly in the ointment has been the inventory decline.

Anonymous said...

Do u not think that when interest rate hits above 10% that it will not impact prices futher? Or, even create more foreclosure?

Patient Renter said...

Do u not think that when interest rate hits above 10% that it will not impact prices futher? Or, even create more foreclosure?

Of course it will. How would it not?

Sippn said...

Of course it will... when pigs fly, horse sales will plummet also.

What idiot would raise rates to 10%?

Big Ben will soon have a new friend on the board, and she will help him temper further rate increases.

Your inventory numbers are not caused by slowing sales (its increasing), but by increasing listings - these could all be REOs or not - it could 2 condo projects - any facts?