Sunday, August 10, 2008

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for August 9, 2008

Inventory showed a minor increase of 200 listings this week, which keeps it within the 14,000-14,500 band we've been in since May. Asking prices held steady, as did the stress indicators.

Welcome to August, when everyone takes a vacation!












19 comments :

Anonymous said...

It seems to me most of your charts are indicating a bit of a bottom. The trends all look to be turning on almost every chart.

Deflationary Jane said...

I still check back from time to time on my old ziprealty file and about 1/2 of the houses that went pending in jan 08 still haven't recorded a sale with the Yolo Co courthouse. Something smells.

As opposited to a bottom, I see this as more of an eye in the storm. Remember the next wave is starting up. Countrywide has still only managed to sell off 25% of it's REO inventory. How many other lenders are finding themselves in similar situation and not ready for the Alt A and psuedo prime vintages. People aren't worroed about that enough.

Deflationary Jane said...

whoops I spoke too soon. Take a look at the Countrywide REO blog, nice uptick in inventory. The beginnings of the Alt A wave?
ouch!

Darth Toll said...

DJ, is it possible to pick a few of those non-recorded pending "sales" and find out exactly what happened with them and who supposedly entered into escrow with the seller? The answer to this question would almost certainly solve the shadow inventory dilemma.

My theory is that there are some large CDO counterparties (investment banks, "investor groups", etc.) that have "bought" a lot of properties recently with the goal of propping up L3 asset values and/or keeping large inventory blocks off the market so they can sell at a more favorable price. Is it possible to enter into very long escrows that never really close? A title company person with access to this kind of info would be a huge help here.

Probably a lot of these properties will come on the market again at some point because the banks can't hold out forever and at the end of the day these counterparties don't want to be in the RE management business (holding costs, further depreciation, maintenance, lawsuits, angry neighbors, etc.)

In any event, this is one of the great mysteries that Max said would likely be solved in the next year.

Max said...

Boy, that CFC chart is telling, isn't it? Here comes Alt-A.

Deflationary Jane said...

Here are a few which were REOs that went pending with no closing:

4 2ND ST, Woodland, CA
MLS#: 70113038

619 GIBSON RD, Woodland, CA
MLS#:80007958 (looks like this went REO in June? I thought it was already a REO)

6 W MARSHALL AVE, Woodland, CA
MLS#: 70127200

436 GIBSON RD, Woodland, CA 95695
MLS#: 70124350

900 BOURN DR, Woodland, CA 95776
MLS#: 70129128 (this is a personal favorite for measuring losses)

Darth Toll said...

DJ, look like you got a live one! Check this out:

Recording Date 07/14/2008 Document # 2008-0021689
Price $164,344 Document Type Trustee's Deed
First TD N/A Type of Sale Full Amount on Deed
Mortgage Doc # Interest Rate
Lender Name
Buyer Name DEUTSCHE BANK NATIONAL TRUST CO, ; SECURITIZED ASSET BACKED RECEIVABLES LLC,
Buyer Vesting Trust
Seller Name GODINEZ SOLORZANO, MELIZA
Legal Description
Lot: 21 Block: 1 Subdivision: SOUTHLAND PARK SUBDIVISION Map Ref: MAP4 PG1

Darth Toll said...

Sorry, that was for 619 GIBSON RD, WOODLAND CA 95695-4844
APN: 06-395-13 YOLO COUNTY

I'm checking on the other ones. 436 Gibson closed on 7/31 to a private individual looks like. But that 619 is very fishy indeed.

Darth Toll said...

For 6 W Marshall,

Also looks fishy, but couldn't get anything really recent on that:

Recording Date 12/07/2007 Document # 2007-0041107
Price $290,001 Document Type Trustee's Deed
First TD N/A Type of Sale Full Amount on Deed
Mortgage Doc # Interest Rate
Lender Name
Buyer Name DEUTSCHE BANK NATIONAL TRUST CO, ; MORGAN STANLEY ABS CAPITAL I INC TRUST 2,
Buyer Vesting Trust
Seller Name GONZALEZ, ROSA; MEDINA, HECTOR
Legal Description
Lot: 2 Subdivision: RAHLVES ADDITION Map Ref: MB4 PG29

Darth Toll said...

Can't find anything for 2nd st, just the original foreclosure:

Recording Date 10/05/2007 Document # 2007-0034562
Price $232,222 Document Type Trustee's Deed
First TD N/A Type of Sale Full Amount on Deed
Mortgage Doc # Interest Rate
Lender Name
Buyer Name HSBC BANK USA NA, ; HOME EQUITY LOAN TRUST SERIES ACE 2005 A,
Buyer Vesting Trust
Seller Name CARY JR, AARON A; CARY, JENNIFER
Legal Description
Lot: 23 Subdivision: SILLS ADDITION TO WOODLAND Map Ref: DD40 PG30

Darth Toll said...

Nothing but the foreclosure for Bourn:

Recording Date 11/07/2007 Document # 2007-0037658
Price $420,000 Document Type Trustee's Deed
First TD N/A Type of Sale Full Amount on Deed
Mortgage Doc # Interest Rate
Lender Name
Buyer Name DEUTSCHE BANK NATIONAL TRUST CO, ; MORGAN STANLEY ABS CAPITAL I INC TRUST 2,
Buyer Vesting Trust
Seller Name TULLEYS, DAVID
Legal Description
Lot: 5 Map Ref: MAP1999 PG18
:SUBDIVISION #4084
City/Muni/Twp: WOODLAND

Darth Toll said...

Here's that one for 436 Gibson:

Recording Date 07/30/2008 Document # 2008-0023580
Price $225,000 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $221,523 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Mortgage Doc # 2008-0023581 Interest Rate
Lender Name COUNTRYWIDE BANK FSB
Buyer Name LOYA JR, STEVEN; LOYA, FELICIA M
Buyer Vesting Joint Tenancy
Seller Name U S BANK NA, ; STRUCTURED ASSET SECURITIES CORP MORTGAG,
Legal Description
Lot: 5 Subdivision: GIBSON SQUARE UNIT #6 Map Ref: MAP9 PG56
City/Muni/Twp: WOODLAND

Deflationary Jane said...

Very very interesting.

That one on Bourne would go pending and sit for months then go active for a day then go pending for months. The one on 2nd did something similar. So venture groups are buying them for pennies on the dollar awaiting a flip or are these just an arm of the original lender created to move them off book? That does smell fishy.

Max said...

So venture groups are buying them for pennies on the dollar awaiting a flip or are these just an arm of the original lender created to move them off book?

I don't think I'm seeing what you're seeing, guys. These just look like normal foreclosures to me. I bet the pendings were legitimate short-sale offers that fell through.

Deflationary Jane said...

In the case of 2nd Street and Bourne, they went REO _before_ they hit the market. Unless someone bought it and they went REO a second time but I'm not seeing that.

Same with Marshall as I actually contacted the listing agent and viewed the home. It had a huge addition on the back that we had no idea if it was permitted but it was obvious that it completely failed to conform to code. Raw wiring, failed roof, a homemade fireplace, it was a nightmare. It needed a cash offer or a full FHA rehab loan for half of it's list price. The loss of the addition removed 1/3 of the sqft on that place.

The listing agent was the first person to admit the asset manager was a clueless idiot. I really liked her candor.

Darth Toll said...

Max, the one that's got me perplexed is the 619 Gibson. How can that one have a closing date of 7/14 which is less than a month ago and the buyer is a bank/investment group and the seller a private party? And on a house that was a foreclosure previously?

I don't get it, unless it's just a mistake in the data.

Anonymous said...

Darth Toll, can you check
1022 44th street
95819

This had a sold sign up two weeks ago.

Anonymous said...

OK black helicopter crowd. . .
you really think these lenders are smart enough to manipulate the market. . . fat chance.

The CFC stats likely show the lack of action taken while they were being taken over by BofA, now they're back at it.

Wouldn't expect REOs from Alt A to show up on the books for awhile. . . as those people, if they are having trouble, are 3-6 months from handing over the keys, maybe longer...


Sippn

Darth Toll said...

anon 6:02

Hasn't recorded yet as far as I can tell. Here's the latest title report:

Recording Date 12/03/2007 Document # BK-PG: 20071203-0376
Loan Amount: $250,000 Loan Type Credit Line (Revolving)
TD Due Date 12/03/2027 Type of Financing
Lender Name FIRST US COMMUNITY CU
Lender Type Credit Union
Borrowers Name RICH,JAMIE LEE
Vesting

Prior Transfer
Recording Date 02/14/2007 Document # BK-PG: 20070214-2031
Price $1,695,000 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $999,995 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Mortgage Doc # 20070214/2032 Interest Rate
Lender Name FLAGSTAR BANK FSB
Buyer Name RICH, JAMIE LEE
Buyer Vesting
Seller Name LONGORIA, JAMES; LONGORIA, DYANNA R
Legal Description
Lot: 1831-1833 Subdivision: WRIGHT & KIMBROUGH TRACT #24 Map Ref: MAP37 MB14
:SOUTH10 FT LOT1831 & N20 FT LOT1833
City/Muni/Twp: SACRAMENTO