Thursday, October 09, 2008

5.5 Year Low



Interesting past Dow closing day values:

October 9, 2008: 8,579
October 10, 2007: 14,280
May 2, 2003: 8,583
September 14, 2001: 8,236
January 19, 2001: 10,588

18 comments :

Anonymous said...

Max, you putting your 401k back to work? I just moved 80% of mine back into the market. We might go a bit lower, but i don't want to miss any upside Monday resulting from news over the weekend.

Max said...

Dude, I'm totally thinking about it. The volatility and the credit stuff is holding me back. I look at my fund choices, and they're actually worse than the DOW/S&P; my confidence in the fund managers is worse than Bush/Paulson.

Seriously, it could go +/- 1000 points at any time. In fact, it already did today. :)

Mike said...

I took all my money out of my cash money funds and 401K funds out of all stock market holdings late may 2007.

Since it looks like we had enough drop since May 2007, I moved back about 40% of my 401K money back in the market today.

Market will likely trend lower, but I figure I have to get in at some point, especially the 401K money since I won't be needing that for a long time.

Max said...

Market will likely trend lower, but I figure I have to get in at some point, especially the 401K money since I won't be needing that for a long time.

I've been trying to log into my account all morning, and the server is busy. :) Question is, are people selling, or buying?

A 50% buy in might be a reasonable move at this juncture. Lets see if I have the guts (if I can even log in.)

Anonymous said...

My entire office has been buying all day. Our server is also hit and miss all day with the activity.

Max said...

My entire office has been buying all day. Our server is also hit and miss all day with the activity.

OK, just got in. 50% move into large cap index.

FWIW, I'm still a pessimist, but a 5.5 year low is pretty damn low. Psychologically, could take a 10% hit from here, having avoided a 30+% hit already.

Max said...

OK, just got in. 50% move into large cap index.

Scratch that, I chickened out and canceled the trade. The volatility is too much for me; I'm staying away until things settle a bit.

Anonymous said...

Crap, the market rallied at the end. Not getting as low as I would have hoped for, but oh well. A 1000 point drop from here would only be temporary (heck we had that big of a swing just today). I would rather take that risk than being on the sidelines.

Nooge said...

Well so much for my thought that the bailout bought us 60 days. It looks like the bailout bought us less than a week!

For the doubters, this last week is a good indication why we could not have hearings, oversight comittees, etc. etc. Things are moving way to fast to wait. We are out of time.

Here is the latest

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/081010/27114651.html

For starters, notice how all the senate ideological blowhards now just issue "no comments" - damn right they should - never should have spoken in the first place. Ideologocial grandstanding delayed any action for a week. A week we arent getting back.

Secondly, this is why we cant let the senate get involved. Any oversight will bog things down. Like it or not boys and girls, the fate of the world lies with ole Hanky Panky - hate to say it but hes the best shot we have.


In sum, if we are going down, at leasts its not going down thanks to inevitable inaction of some oversight hearings. At least with the unliateral power granted to paulson, we arent going down without a fight. Hank gonna put it all his chips in on black. Lets just hope it doesnt come up red.

Patient Renter said...

It looks like the bailout bought us less than a week!

700 billion quite the pricetag for "a week" in which things got worse, not better.

Nooge said...

Patient renter.

Yep - in hindsight, the cat was out of the bag by then. In hindsight, turns out letting Lehman fail was like playing russian roulette - except this time there was a bullet in the chamber.

Better thing would have been to bail out lehman and then seek the bailout. Problem there is, it took a catastrophe on wall st just to gin up enough political will on capitol hill to get this "to little too late measure" passed.

In hindsight, turns out we were damned either way. Cest la vie, and good luck Hank.

Patient Renter said...

Paulson doesn't need luck. I'm sure he'll do just fine, taking care of his buddies like he always does. As Dean Baker pointed out recently:

According to The New York Times, Lloyd Blankfein, the current CEO of Goldman Sachs, was in the room when Paulson decided to save AIG, the giant insurer, from bankruptcy. This is noteworthy because AIG owed Goldman $20 billion.

Wadin' In said...

You guys are all smarter than I. I pulled 50% out of the market at the end of 2006 ($11,800 DOW). Pulled the other 50% out Dec. 2007.

I started dollar costing back in at $11,200 and have about 50% in the market now. Down about 15% on those shares.

I am still buying though, since this is the right time.

Max, I suggest you break your trades into smaller pieces, say 10% at a time. Then you are more diversified and you can worry less about the ultimate bottom.

Of course, I got out too early, then back in to early.

Deflationary Jane said...

I got out when the DJI hit 13600. I was surprised it made it that far. I was lucky.

Only thing I'm still holding is ebay. Still mostly out and happy with my long CDs and T bills. Everything else in cash. I'd rather make a crappy 4% then loose 15% to 20% like lots of other folks I know.

Anonymous said...

wow deflationary jane, do you want a cookie?

Anonymous said...

Looks like we are in for another rally today. Sucks to be sitting in cash. 11% move in all three major averages yesterday, and futures are up 4% right now. That is a whole year's worth of gains in two days. I can sell and go back to cash and wait for the next big sell off when Osama gets elected.

Max said...

That is a whole year's worth of gains in two days.

That was a whole decade's worth of losses in one week.

Go for it, man. I wish I could day-trade my retirement fund like you can. When you're a multimillionaire at the age of 30, send me a picture of yourself on your new yacht and I'll post it on the blog.

Anonymous said...

"When you're a multimillionaire at the age of 30."

Sorry, already past both of those marks.

Please do not sit in cash forever. Do not let volatility get the best of you. When you see opportunity like last Friday, you are a fool not to jump on it. I don't day trade my 401k, I have other accounts for that, which I am up 43% this year on.