Sunday, January 11, 2009

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for January 10, 2009

Two Saturdays does not a trend make, but the slope of the inventory increase looks a lot like 2007, and not at all like 2008. I would interpret large inventory increases combined with continuing asking price declines as a sign of capitulation in the resale market. We'll know more in the next 8 weeks.












6 comments :

Buying Time said...

I saw that inventory chart, and looking at the new line (and the other three) reminded me of how long this implosion has taken.

Love what you have done with the price distribution charts. They tell a nice story of increasing affordability.

Max said...

Love what you have done with the price distribution charts. They tell a nice story of increasing affordability.

I have you to thank for those. Awesome way to visualize the data.

I can't believe it's been almost three years since I started collecting data in earnest. Since then I've collected millions of lines of data... damn, that's sobering.

Anonymous said...

I wish someone knew what inventory in the area "should be" (i.e. before the bubble, what was the normal number of units available and how much did it rise and fall over the year)?

I ask this because its possible that most of the problem inventory is gone and now the inventory is behaving normally. Note, I say "possible" instead of likely - I believe there is more problem inventory out there.

Still it would be nice to know...

Deflationary Jane said...

Still seeing loads of properties kept "off book". They show pending and hang there for 3 to 6 months before coming back on.

One agent explained that depending on how the brokerage you work for functions, those off book listings affect your wages and sales numbers. The sale could fall out but they leave them as pending until forced to bring them back.

This practice is pretty common looking at my spreadsheets. 3/5ths of my curious pile are being handled this way. She mentioned certain large brokerages are worse then others. So there is your shadow inventory

And the bidding wars seem to be over lowball prices. I'm seeing very little going over asking even if the asking is way under value.

patient renter said...

I wish someone knew what inventory in the area "should be"

The normalcy of inventory is hard to peg. Most of us, as future buyers, care about prices. Regarding where prices should be - pick whatever year you think preceeded the insanity (such as 2000) add a few percent a year for "normal" home appreciation (matches inflation on average) and you get prices that are "normal".

In terms of the downturn though, we very well may overshoot the bottom, as is common in bear markets.

Darth Toll said...

Max,

Here's a good Mish post on one of our favorite topics. It's kind of a round-up of the various state pension plans across the country, and as expected a "Massive Taxpayer Backlash Over Pension Crisis Is Coming"

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/massive-taxpayer-backlash-over-pension.html