Monday, February 16, 2009

January 2009 California State Budget Data

State tax revenue declined more rapidly last month than it did in December. Here are the grim highlights, straight from the Controller's Office (pdf warning):

- January 2009 revenue was $2.1 billion (-21.7%) below estimate*
- January 2009 revenue was $2.2 billion (-22.1%) below January 2008 revenue
- Year-to-date revenue (July 2008-January 2009) was $4.6 billion (-8.7%) below estimate
- Year-to-date revenue was $4.1 billion (-7.8%) below July 2007-January 2008
- The state has $2.7 billion in "borrowable resources" remaining
- January 2009 general fund revenue was $7.70 billion
- January 2009 general fund spending was $8.01 billion

* Note: The Governor's Office released new revenue estimates based on current economic conditions, but spending decisions are still based on the old 2008-2009 Budget Act estimates. Until a new budget is passed, the Budget Act estimates are operable.

The cumulative year-to-date decline is accelerating rapidly, from $1.9 billion in December to $4.1 billion in January!

The state continues to miss revenue estimates by a wide margin, and keeps spending more than it takes in. It will be interesting to see if the revenue projections in the new budget bill can be met during a deep recession. At the current rate of decline, we'll be back at the negotiating table within six months.

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