Saturday, May 02, 2009

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for May 2, 2009

Not going to waste a ton of digital ink on this slight inventory increase. I only want to point out that:

a) This is the first weekly inventory increase in 6 weeks.
b) They were mostly in the sub-$200K range (banks).
c) They are priced low enough to effect the overall market.


Anonymous said...

looks like the bump up in inventory is the dreaded shadow inventory being dumped.

Max - kudos to you for calling this (i.e. a ton of the shadow is low price garbage 90% of this blog isnt interested in) as it was. For a while I was drinking the "Mr. Mortgage" kool-aid about a tsunami of good homes being held back by the banks - only to be unleashed and driving down prices. Remember his self described "THE QUICKENING"

What a bunch of immaterial BS!

Again, good marks for you for calling this as it was. Id rather know the truth (even if I dont like it) versus listening to false prophets like this fool!

Anonymous said...

some of us can only afford the "low priced garage 90% of this blog isn't interested in" so take your smug self back to granite bay This is the beginning of good news for me.

Bryan said...

LOL, yeah. I get this funny image of a bull wearing a bearskin.

The comment seemed to be trying to steer the conversation heavy-handedly, or at least impress upon the rest of us his/her own interpretation of the facts. It kind of sounded like s/he was hearing Max waxing bullish. I guess I didn't get that same impression.

Deflationary Jane said...

I'm with you Bryan. I got something different out of Max's words too.

This morning I received a email with new listings from a broker who does nothing but REOs. He sends these out by area and today's was Gold River. But I thought Gold River was immune... didn't everyone want to live there? Wasn't Gold River one of the areas everyone was waiting for?

Sorry 9:27 but I think you misread the smoke signals.

Lander said...

DJ - You mean Gold River turned out to be Gold Burrito after all?

"It means that in the desireable areas (established neighborhoods with good locations) DO NOT NEED TO SELL so the people pull the listings rather than sell at a reduced price. A house is not a warmed burrito under a heat lamp at Taco Bell and the owners are not forced to sell before they spoil. This is the exact reason that foreclosures and inventory is only sitting in certain areas and not everywhere. Anyone with even half a brain knows that this is the exact way any recovery occurs and prices in mature, desireable neighborhoods are moving UP not DOWN.
The doom and gloomers are predicting 50% decline and have seen maybe 10% on average with desireable areas basically flat. I have said all along that there would be pricing pressures in South Sac, some areas of Elk Grove, and Natomas. East Sac, Gold River, Davis, some areas in Folsom, etc are holding up just fine. Not that long ago I posted the most recent comps in my neighborhood - basically no change from the high and you will find prices are up from 2 years ago. Basically, you will not see a decrease in the actual sales prices...but the fact of the matter is that prices in desireable areas are just fine.
[Y]our 'Burrito Theory' of housing inventory is wrong. Usually when someone screams 'bubble' for the last 4-5 years and prices go up in desireable areas, they would realize that they were wrong, shut up, and then go away. For the doom and gloomers - they just scream louder and think every else is stupid despite the fact that reality continues to show that in fact - they themselves are the idiots."

July 02, 2007

Max said...

I've actually been trying to divorce my personal opinions from what the data seems to say. We've discussed the bifercated market concept before; to me it's pretty clear that where REO exisist in concentration, there are lower prices.

What the future hold for the housing market depends too much on credit availability, government action, and employment that it's impossible to look at it in isolation and draw a useful conclusion.