Sunday, June 14, 2009

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for June 13, 2009

At last, I've completed transitioning all 12 graphs over to the new format. I'll still be tweaking them over the next few weeks as new flot features are added and to sort out inconsitencies. If you notice anything incorrect or unclear, please leave a comment and I'll add it to the list. I am finding the new graphs much easier to read (being able to switch between counties within the larger size is one big bonus). Thanks for bearing with me!

Four County Inventory Levels



Inventory on 2009-06-13: 11152



Asking Price Levels



Price Inventory Levels



Asking Price Distribution



Troubled Inventory Levels



Flipper Market Share



Sellers In Trouble Market Share



Sellers In Trouble Days Since Last Sale



Asking Price Average Percent Loss



Asking Price Total Dollar Losses

(millions)



Weekly Inventory Price Changes



Weekly Inventory Price Changes

6 comments :

Nooge said...

Finally it looks as if that 4 county inventory level has turned to flat.

Think it will stay there thru the winter or will it exhibit the seasonal pattern and fall further?

Anonymous said...

I'll use a quote from Shiller, who finally said something smart.... "it could go either way"


I heard this morning that CA has another 90 day moratorium on foreclosures? just when my friend the bank asset manager has her first REOs in months. Without that, you might have seen some inventory gain.


Other than that, it does look like a pretty firm bottom.



Loans above conforming are pretty tough to get so that is impacting sales and inventory in the higher end. It isn't that buyers aren't qualifying, the lenders don't have investors to sell the jumbo loans to - at least not very many since they burned so many. My opinion is these lenders owe fees back to jumbo applicants as they really didn't have loans to offer.

Sippn

Max said...

I'll use a quote from Shiller, who finally said something smart.... "it could go either way"

Nobody knows, and anyone who says different is kidding themselves. Our personal house hunt has been a frustrating experience, with a lot of shit property, and banks playing games with listings. Now with interest rates spiking higher, I expect the buyer pool to shrink appreciably for about 6 months until the sellers realize they have to drop their prices yet again.

I heard this morning that CA has another 90 day moratorium on foreclosures?

I really need to do a post about this. There is a "moratorium" of sorts in place, but the wording of the new rule only states that the lender/servicer have a "program in place" to help debtors, not that they actually do any helping. By now everybody has a program as required by Federal law, so the CA law is redundant. It will do nothing to change the foreclosure rate.

"it could go either way"

There was a great nutshell post on Zero Hedge last night that captures the essence of how much of a toss-up the next few months really is:

The Fed decision Tree

Translated to the mortgage market, you have two possible outcomes:

1. Tight credit with low rates.
2. Somewhat looser credit at much higher rates.

Once the so-called "cash buyers" are spent out, credit availability will once again dominate the housing outcome.

It could go either way.

Buying Time said...

Sippn -

Funny how the tables turn....

Yes in select zips non-conforming/Jumbo is an issue...but it only represents a small fraction of the overall market in Sacramento.

What is worse for these areas is the lack of move-up buyers....created from organic sales. As CR puts it...most sales today are a one-and-done.

Darth Toll said...

Max, good luck on the house hunt - it is really frustrating dealing with the banks. When you do finally find a house, your Realtor (or you perhaps) will have to do ALL of the work to actually close it. Good luck getting the listing agent or the bank to do anything. That is my experience anyway.

I'm glad I bought a foreclosure earlier in the year as the selection now absolutely sucks, and I'm seeing HIGHER prices in my neighborhood if you can believe it. Some people are truly delusional and have no clue that the green shoots they are seeing are simply weeds that have been spray painted green.

Personally I'm sticking with the bond market collapse theory where interest rates shoot much higher from here. This can always be circumvented with a stock market crash. Either way, it won't mean good news for the housing market.

Anonymous said...

Max,

The new plots are great. They look a lot better. For some feedback, the posts now crash on the ipod/iphone (at least they do for me). You probably don't care, but I thought I would pass it along.

Jason