Thursday, October 15, 2009

California State Revenue Data: September 2009

The year-over-year general fund revenue decline continued through the start of the 2009-2010 fiscal year, with a $2 billion drop for July, August, and September 2009 vs 2008:


And, after a mere three months after the latest budget deal, revenue is running a whopping 5.3% under estimates:

Compared to the amended 2009-10 Budget Act, General Fund revenues are below the year-to-date estimate by $1.08 billion (-5.3%). The three largest sources of revenue were lower than the estimates by $1.62 billion (-8.3%).
You can get a feel for how poor the revenue predictions really are by looking at the sales tax data. Per the controller:
Sales tax collections year to date are $285 million under (-4.3%) the amended 2009-10 Budget Act estimates.
However:
...retail sales taxes were up $148 million (2.4%) from last year’s total at the end of September.
I guess "Cash For Clunkers" didn't go as well as they thought.

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