It's been a while since I did one of these (they're very labor-intensive), but seeing as how 2009 will likely be the year of the Great Commercial Real Estate Crash, I thought I'd pick up torch once again. To get me started, I decided to revisit some of the places I first documented over 15 months ago, in December 2007. For more background on the troubles in commercial real estate, I suggest these posts by Calculated Risk and Mish Shedlock:
CR: Fed: Delinquency Rates Increased Sharply in Q4
Mish: Does The Shopping Center Economic Model Work?
Elk Grove is full of empty and soon to be empty commercial real estate. Most of the city was constructed within the last 10 years, much of it within the last 5. It grew from north to south away from Sacramento proper into farm and pasture land, and it seems to be dying off in the opposite direction. These properties are mostly located on the the bleeding southern edge.
There were two bright spots. The old Ralph's store was changed into a Nugget, and what was once a "coming soon" restaurant is going strong over a year later. Other than that, things look pretty bad for Elk Grove commercial real estate. Incredibly, there is still some construction going on.
Blue are improved over last time, red is the same, green is new. View Larger Map
New Nugget store replaced the vacant Ralphs.
Pho Lotus is doing well one year later.
Whitelock and Bruceville. Still nothing new here, and the cookie place is gone, soon to be replaced by something called "Yogelato."
Nothing new at Whitelock and Atkins, and they lost the pizza place.
Stripmall across from Stonelake is half empty.
Stonelake itself is still struggling.
Yes, they're still building CRE on spec here. Home of a future bailout.
Another soon-to-be taxpayer owned institution.
So much for the reef hermit at Harbour Point. They've been asking $1.95/sqft since my last visit. Would you pay $1950/month for a store here?
Longport Retail Center is 100% empty.
This project is abandoned.
The only change at Laguna West is the fancy new sign.
A large collection of empty office buildings and light retail near Laguna Blvd and Highway 99. These buildings surround the Elk Grove Civic Center.
Home of the former Elk Grove Ford. The gangsters are moving in.
Home of the former Elk Grove Saturn.
The site for the now and future Elk Grove Promenade. The project has now been suspended indefinitely, and the owner, General Growth Properties, is in default on $1.2 billion in loans. They may be forced into bankruptcy at any time.