Sunday, March 21, 2010

Sacramento Regional Real Estate Trends for March 20, 2010

Summary Of Changes for Sacramento County

 
Week of 2010-03-20
Since 2010-03-13
Since 2009-03-21
Direction
#
%
Direction
#
%
Inventory
7128
Up
62
0.899%
Up
-187
-2.60%
Median Asking Price
$179900
Up
-$50
0%
Up
-$19100
-9.59%
Average Asking Price
$218374
Up
-$73
0%
Up
-$38186
-14.8%
Average Asking Price Per SQFT
$131
Up
$0
0%
Up
-$15
-10.2%
SIT Inventory
3297
Up
13
0.400%
Up
-186
-5.29%
FIT Inventory
622
Up
-4
-0.59%
Up
-554
-47.0%
New Listings
923
Up
-45
-4.59%
Up
46
5.200%
Price Drops
466
Up
44
10.4%
Up
-37
-7.39%
Price Increases
45
Up
7
18.39%
Up
19
73.09%

Four County Inventory Levels

Inventory on 2010-03-20: 11214



Asking Price Levels



Price Inventory Levels



Asking Price Distribution



Troubled Inventory Levels



Flipper Market Share



Sellers In Trouble Market Share



Sellers In Trouble Days Since Last Sale



Asking Price Average Percent Loss



Asking Price Total Dollar Losses

(millions)



Weekly Inventory Price Changes

3 comments :

Anonymous said...

Could you define again what your inventory number is made of. MLS data? including pending? including ASC (contingent?) adding shadow?

short sales are now a large % of the market, skewing numbers, right or wrong, just need to understand. Lyons data is different, they may not show contingent deals as inventory, right or wrong, its good to know.

Sippn

Max said...

I can't speak for the Lyons data, but the inventory data I use consists of active listings only, including short sales and ss contingent if they remain active. The short-sale flags are relatively new to the system and there are still problems with agents misapplying them, as well as active subversion.

I do think the inventory data is fuzzier than ever, with all the various possible states the listing can be in, and all the ways agents can make mistakes or take liberties. When we were buying last year, almost every short-sale listing was incorrect in some way. I'd hazard a guess and say my inventory data within +/- 10% of "reality".

I'd be interested in hearing from some agents: does adding the "contingent" flag increase or decrease interest in the property? Are backup offers worth the time these days? Do you anticipate taking more backups once the Fed MBS purchases stop?

Anonymous said...

Kind of what I thought...

Bet Lyon (Trend graphics) data excludes the contingent "ASC" data.

Last year when shorts were becoming active, it was a lost cause mostly. This year, shorts are going to be the largest segment of the market, professional negotiators have the lenders working to a consistent finish place, and the lenders have figured out it is better to sell this way than foreclose.

So, I thought the definitions were fuzzy last year, but a friend of mine, who does this alot, says when he gets an offer good enough to submit to the lender, he gets an approval from the seller (homeowner is still the property owner ) then it becomes "ASC" (contingent upon the lenders approval) and is no longer marketed while it is being negotiated. Some listings actually strongly request calls and showings to stop in their text. Once the lender has agreed (a lot of legal wrangling) the listing moves to "Pending" status and the lender states the conditions to close typ "all proceeds go to lender...., borrower lien free, buyer lien free..." and the buyer is given so many days or weeks to execute (close).

20-30% of buyers have disappeared by this time in the first round, but at least you have an "approved" deal and know what the lender will move on quickly. The second buyer, if at the same price, and within a couple of weeks, can close rather quickly.

He had a condo pop out last Weds, and by Friday it was gone again....cash, under $100K, so it will go rapidly to "pending".


Sippn